2 May 2002, 12:18  Forex - Dollar halts slide in early trade but likely to remain under pressure

LONDON (AFX) - The dollar has managed to halt its slide in early trade though the currency is likely to remain under pressure ahead of tomorrow's crucial US labour market report, dealers said. Though euro/dollar has come off its overnight five-month high of 0.9081 usd, dealers expect further dollar weakness to prompt a break above 0.91 usd. However, the market is already pretty long euro and the upside is likely to be capped at 0.9110 usd, according to ABN Amro currency strategist Rob Hayward, who added that the market reaction to yesterday's Senate testimony of US Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill's was a bit "extreme". Michael Klawitter, currency strategist at WestLB, said the markets were so fast to sell the dollar that strong US car sales and the eventual up-turn in US equities were ignored. However, the April ISM index and March construction spending provided additional fuel to the bears, he added. Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein currency strategist Paul Mackel agreed that the extent of the long euro positions will prompt a reversal at some stage but a move above 0.9100 will be too much of a "good selling opportunity" to miss. The weakness is likely to continue until tomorrow's US non-farm payroll report, as market participants will be cautious about increasing their dollar short positions, according to WestLB's Klawitter. In addition, Klawitter said the dollar remains vulnerable to any disappointment in today's US data (initial jobless claims and factory orders). Klawitter also noted that the euro's performance against other currencies has not been that convincing, raising question marks about its long-term performance against the dollar. This morning's weaker-than-expected French consumer confidence data was not the vote of confidence needed, he said. Dealers also said the European Central Bank's expected decision to keep rates at 3.25 pct is unlikely to influence matters too much but the following press conference may provide some food for thought. Meanwhile, dollar/yen hovered above its recent lows as Japan enters the Golden Week holiday. O'Neill's lukewarm comments about the value of Japanese intervention continues to pile on the pressure. "The market is focusing on the US Treasury not being supportive of Japanese intervention," said DKW's Mackel. "This has provided a green light to sell dollar/yen." The Swiss franc was also in focus in early trade after the Swiss National Bank cut its short-term repo rate to 1.36 pct from 1.37 pct, and voiced its concerns about the currency's rise to seven-month highs.

© 1999-2024 Forex EuroClub
All rights reserved