2 May 2002, 12:18 Forex - Dollar halts slide in early trade but likely to remain under pressure
LONDON (AFX) - The dollar has managed to halt its slide in early
trade though the currency is likely to remain under pressure ahead of
tomorrow's crucial US labour market report, dealers said.
Though euro/dollar has come off its overnight five-month high of
0.9081 usd, dealers expect further dollar weakness to prompt a break
above 0.91 usd.
However, the market is already pretty long euro and the upside is
likely to be capped at 0.9110 usd, according to ABN Amro currency
strategist Rob Hayward, who added that the market reaction to
yesterday's Senate testimony of US Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill's
was a bit "extreme".
Michael Klawitter, currency strategist at WestLB, said the markets
were so fast to sell the dollar that strong US car sales and the
eventual up-turn in US equities were ignored. However, the April ISM
index and March construction spending provided additional fuel to the
bears, he added.
Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein currency strategist Paul Mackel
agreed that the extent of the long euro positions will prompt a
reversal at some stage but a move above 0.9100 will be too much of a
"good selling opportunity" to miss.
The weakness is likely to continue until tomorrow's US non-farm
payroll report, as market participants will be cautious about
increasing their dollar short positions, according to WestLB's
Klawitter.
In addition, Klawitter said the dollar remains vulnerable to any
disappointment in today's US data (initial jobless claims and factory
orders).
Klawitter also noted that the euro's performance against other
currencies has not been that convincing, raising question marks about
its long-term performance against the dollar. This morning's
weaker-than-expected French consumer confidence data was not the vote
of confidence needed, he said.
Dealers also said the European Central Bank's expected decision to
keep rates at 3.25 pct is unlikely to influence matters too much but
the following press conference may provide some food for thought.
Meanwhile, dollar/yen hovered above its recent lows as Japan enters
the Golden Week holiday. O'Neill's lukewarm comments about the value of
Japanese intervention continues to pile on the pressure.
"The market is focusing on the US Treasury not being supportive of
Japanese intervention," said DKW's Mackel. "This has provided a green
light to sell dollar/yen."
The Swiss franc was also in focus in early trade after the Swiss
National Bank cut its short-term repo rate to 1.36 pct from 1.37 pct,
and voiced its concerns about the currency's rise to seven-month highs.
© 1999-2024 Forex EuroClub
All rights reserved