Tokyo, May 17 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's central bank will probably keep monetary policy unchanged next week as signs the worst of the country's 18-month recession is over takes pressure off Governor Masaru Hayami to pump more money into the economy. All 15 economists, investors and traders surveyed by Bloomberg News expect the Bank of Japan to sit pat when policy makers meet on Monday and Tuesday. The board's decision will be announced when the meeting ends Tuesday afternoon. The central bank pared interest rates to close to zero in March 2001 -- the overnight call rate was recently at 0.001 percent -- and made trillions of yen available to banks in a failed attempt to stop a five-year slide in lending. The bank has pledged to stick with the policy until consumer prices stop falling. ``The bank's commitment to the zero-rate policy won't be affected even if some economic data improves,'' said Mamoru Yamazaki, chief economist at Barclays Capital Japan Ltd. ``While the economy seems to be hitting bottom, there's very little chance the bank will reverse course and head toward tightening credit any time soon.'' The nine-member board last month forecast consumer prices will fall between 0.8 percent and 1 percent this fiscal year to March 31, extending a 2 1/2 year slide. Board members will also discuss whether to upgrade their assessment of the world's second-biggest economy for the third month in a row when it releases its monthly report Wednesday. The government has seized on pieces of good news to suggest the economy may be emerging from its third recession in a decade, and will probably raise its economic assessment for the third straight time when it releases its monthly report later today.

Worst Has Passed
Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokawa this week said the economy ``has already hit bottom.'' Nippon Steel Corp. Chairman Takashi Imai, who heads the Keidanren, Japan's biggest business lobby, said the worst time for the economy ``has already passed.'' Exports rose in the first three months of the year, and factory production gained for a second month in March, the first back-to- back gain in almost two years. The leading economic index, which points to how the economy will be going in six months, rose to a 19- month high in March. The central bank might not be as optimistic as the government. When policy makers released economic growth and price forecasts last month, they said the economy will most likely ``stop deteriorating in the latter half of this fiscal year.'' The ``anticipated recovery is unlikely to gain much momentum,'' the bank said.

Double-Dip
``The BOJ's economic assessment tends to be more cautious than the government's, probably because of its commitment to the zero- rate policy,'' said Seiji Shiraishi, chief strategist at Daiwa Securities SMBC. The economy probably grew 0.4 percent in the three months ended March 31 after shrinking for three quarters, according to the latest Bloomberg News survey of economists. Growth may not last. Gross domestic product will probably fall 0.2 percent this quarter and then decline a further 0.1 percent next quarter, the survey showed. Some reports back up that concern. Machine orders, an indication of future capital spending, tumbled 7.4 percent in the first quarter from the previous quarter. Monthly wages fell an average 0.3 percent in the year ended March 31. ``Companies have no choice but to slash wages if they want to report a profit this year, because sales are projected to be almost flat,'' said Susumu Okano, chief economist at Daiwa Institute of Research. Falling wages will continue to depress spending, making it difficult for companies to raise prices. ``It's impossible to anticipate an end to price declines -- they could continue for years,'' Okano said. The minutes of next week's meeting will be published July 1.