16 May 2002, 13:10  Euro up in early London trade after IG Metall secures 4 pct wage hike

LONDON (AFX) - The euro was higher in early London trade following the news that metalworkers' employers and IG Metall union had struck a 4 pct wage hike deal, dealers said. "The euro/dollar bounced back overnight and is looking well placed to continue pushing higher," said Ian Stannard, strategist at BNP Paribas. The key news is the IG Metall wage settlement and Stannard said it was unclear what effect this will have on the market. "The deal was not as bad as some might have feared and it might provide some relief," he said. But the outcome is unlikely to have an impact on the European Central Bank's thinking, Stannard said. "Overall the euro is looking well positioned to move into the 0.93 usd over the next three months, said Stannard adding that, "yesterday's US data was on the disappointing side, which is going to help the euro," he added. On the domestic news front, the euro zone final consumer price index for April is due today. Consensus is for a month-on-month 0.3 pct rise versus 0.6 pct in March, and for a year-on-year 2.2 pct rise compared to 2.5 pct in March. But Michael Klawitter, analyst at WestLB said the very low Italian Q1 GDP data points to a higher-than-expected fiscal deficit and the outcome of the Dutch elections also raises longer-term uncertainty surrounding the euro. However, most focus will be on the US Philadelphia Fed Survey due at 5.00 pm today. Observers are looking for clues as to whether the strong recovery seen in the first quarter is extending through to the second quarter. "Initial signs, from the US retail sales, are that the recovery is holding on very well. The market is looking for further evidence of that," said Stannard. He believes a rise in the Philadelphia Fed gauge of business activity will not provide the dollar with much support. A good rise is already priced in, but a lower number could hurt the unit, he said. Just as much attention will be on the US initial jobless claims, to gauge whether the double spike seen in the series has run its course, or is ready to move higher, said Klawitter. Elsewhere, sterling was broadly lower against major currencies amid a lack fo economic news to trade on. However the EMU debate was once again the order of the day. In an interview with the BBC, UK prime minister Tony Blair gave enthusiastic comments with regards to the euro, which is seen as supportive for the euro/sterling. The yen was broadly higher, boosted by encouraging economic and portfolio flows data, Stannard said.

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