13 May 2002, 12:29  Forex - Dollar-yen bounces in early London after Japanese intervention talk

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LONDON (AFX) - The dollar bounced back against the yen in early London trade after Japanese Vice Administrative Finance Minister Toshiro Muto said the government is prepared to intervene in the forex market if needs be, dealers said.
"Muto fired another warning shot raising intervention fears," Will Rugg at Standard and Poor's MMS, said.
This morning Muto told AFX-Asia the ministry is "closely watching the forex moves and, if needed, we will take appropriate action in the market".
"Although there's not much chance of intervention at these levels, dollar-yen bounced back," Rugg said.
He said unless dollar-yen reaches the 120 level, intervention is unlikely.
The market is still awaiting Moody's downgrade of Japan's sovereign debt rating.
Many expected the ratings agency to move to downgrade last Friday, and now it is widely expected to act today.
"The market is waiting for it....Just to have some final closure," he said.
"A two notch downgrade is already factored in, so there could be a rally if its only one," Rugg said.
The euro was tracking broad dollar moves, with economists looking ahead to Wednesday's Dutch election as a possible market mover for the European unit.
The Dutch poll has been catapulted into the spotlight by Pim Fortuyn's murder.
"[Fortuyn's] party, which clearly leans to the extreme right, could now grab a larger share of the vote and play a big part in the next government," economists at Bear Stearns said.
"This is something that could weigh on the euro," they added.
"We had two days of stock market declines [in the US] after Wednesday's one-day wonder," Rugg said, adding that more dollar weakness is probably on the cards.
Sterling was higher against the euro after the Daily Telegraph reported that support for euro entry amongst the UK public has risen to 41 pct, with 55 pct against.
"That's substantially stronger than other polls we've seen recently," Rugg said, noting that it could be one of the factors supporting the euro-sterling cross.
Weekend reports that UK retail group Kingfisher PLC is poised to buy out the remaining 45 pct of its French retail offshoot Castorama, in which it currently holds a 55 pct stake, for 5 bln eur is also boosting the euro against sterling.
"The M&A talk is definitely helping to bolster euro-sterling," Rugg said.

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