13 May 2002, 12:14  USD retreated on Friday as US stocks fell for the second day after a ferocious short-covering rally

E-treasury
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United States - USD retreated on Friday as US stocks fell for the second day after a ferocious short-covering rally on Wednesday. Expect the tone in USD to remain defensive unless key economic reports this week such as retail sales, industrial production and consumer sentiment can manage to lift the sentiment on US stocks and USD, dispelling concerns over the momentum of the US economic recovery. More than an affirmation of a positive US growth outlook, USD needs US corporate earnings outlooks to be revised up to render their valuations more attractive to alleviate some current account deficit financing concerns as corporate bond issuance slows. That commodity prices remain buoyant suggests that markets are not really concerned about global growth concerns. The only thing going for the USD now is that markets are apparently already very short USDs, judging from the latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report. This should create the potential for short- covering on USD on any unexpectedly positive surprises from the US either from the economic data front or corporate earnings front as a few tech names report this week, the last of the current earnings season.
Data scheduled in the US this week include April retail sales on Tuesday, CPI and industrial production on Wednesday, housing starts, jobless claims and the May Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey on Thursday and the May University of Michigan consumer sentiment index and March trade balance on Friday. Data on balance is expected to show that the US economy continues to grow albeit showing a loss of momentum from Q1. While trade balance has been ignored by markets for some years, the re-surfacing of concerns over the US current account deficit could see the trade figures garner more interest than usual.

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