4 April 2002, 16:23 Japan economy to recover slightly in H2 - OECD
TOKYO (AFX-ASIA) - The domestic economy will enjoy a slight
recovery in the second half of 2002, the secretary general of the
Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said,
while calling on Tokyo to speed up a drastic reform pledge.
"The OECD forecasts a mild upturn of the Japanese economy beginning
in the second half of this year largely stimulated by the recovery in
the United States," Donald Johnston told a Tokyo symposium organised by
the OECD, the Keidanren group of business leaders and the Nikkei
financial newspaper.
But the government should not become complacent about implementing
wide-sweeping reforms despite signs of the economy improving, Johnston
said.
Problems blighting the economy are mostly structural.
"The OECD already recognises signs the economy is reacting to past
and on-going reforms. A large number of small but clearly positive
changes has been noticed," Johnston told the symposium, which was also
attended by Japan's minister for economic and fiscal policy Heizo
Takenaka.
Takenaka underlined the necessity for progress with a reform pledge
made by Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi when he took office almost a
year ago.
"Of course we look for cyclical recovery, but we recognise this
recovery is not going to be robust. So the next two years are going to
be an intensive adjustment period," Takenaka said.
Japan is successfully reforming its system of remuneration and
salaries based on merit, said the OECD secretary general, adding he is
also impressed by the resilience of firms to still go public despite
the ailing economy.
However, "many companies are too bureaucratic," Johnston said.
"Female entrepreneurs represent a talent that is almost entirely
neglected."
The Paris-based organisation does not deny the necessity for
macro-economic policies on top of structural reforms and "will call for
fiscal policy not to be too restrictive and monetary policy to ease
further," said Johnston.
Richard Koo, chief economist at Nomura Research Institute believes
in a revival of fiscal policy to boost economic activity, as businesses
are preoccupied with cleaning up their accounts and reducing debts,
which have become more of a burden due to Japan's fierce deflation.
"Companies go from profit maximisation to debt minimisation. We
need to have fiscal policy," Koo said at the symposium.
Changes in Japan's society and economy must be seen as a chance for
the country, concluded Johnston. "Population aging opens an enormous
market to meet the needs of the elderly."
The migration of business to cheaper Chinese shores was inevitable
and will force Japanese enterprises to increase the value of home-grown
products, he said.
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