4 April 2002, 12:16 Forex - Dollar down in early London trade as Middle East tensions escalate
LONDON (AFX) - The dollar was weaker across the board in early
London trade, reacting negatively to escalating tensions in the Middle
East and rising oil prices, dealers said.
"The dollar's normal safe haven role at times of military tension
is currently not playing out as the US is one of the key political
losers of the current escalation," said Michael Klawitter, analyst at
WesLB research.
"This sentiment is unlikely to change in the near-term although the
downside risks are limited ahead of friday's labour market report," he
added.
"Tensions in the Middle East are leading to weaker equity prices as
the market starts to fear the implicit fiscal tightening that higher
oil prices imply," said Shahab Jalinoos, strategist at UBS Warburg.
With the US still dependent on capital inflows because of its
larger current account deficit, anything that threatens those inflows,
such as weaker stock prices, is a dollar negative, he added.
Meanwhile the euro mananged to hold above the 0.88 usd level, but
merely benefiting from a weaker dollar, dealers said noting that
speculative accounts were still holding long euro positions.
The market decided to ignore the euro zone purchasing managers'
index for services, which rose to 53.1 in March from 51.5 in February.
The business expectations component rose to 72.0 - the highest since
August 2000, compared from 69.7 in February.
Separately, Jalinoos reckons the euro is more likely to be hurt by
rising commodity prices than the dollar.
"If oil prices do keep rising, Europe will probably take a bigger
hit than the US from that because the European economy is structurally
less flexible than the US economy. Oil price hikes are more likely to
pass through to final prices," he said.
He believes the European Central Bank takes oil prices as an
inflation threat more seriously than the US Federal Reserve, and is
therefore likely to react to the threat with tighter monetary policy
earlier.
"From a growth prospective for Europe, higher oil prices are
probably more negative than they are for the US. In the long-term none
of the development that we've seen can be considered euro positive," he
added.
The ECB is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at
3.25 pct at today's meeting.
However all ears will be tuned to president Wim Duisenberg's speech
at the subsequent press conference, at 1.30 pm.
Dealers expect sterling and the Norwegien krona to keep on firming
against the euro, deriving some positive sentiment as oil producing
countries in this crisis environment.
Of news, UK house prices showed a rise of 0.9 pct in March,
according to Nationwide house price index.
Klawitter said the data confirmed market expectations that the BoE
may be the first major central bank to hike rates.
This will provide ongoing support to sterling versus the euro, he
said.
The Bank of England's rate announcement should have little market
impact as hardly anyone is expecting a change in interest rates at none
today.
Finally the yen was also firmer, still benefiting from rapatriation
flows from Japanese institutions, dealers said.
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