29 April 2002, 14:53 Forex - Dollar slips lower in midday London trade, all eyes on stock markets
LONDON (AFX) - The dollar slipped lower in midday London trade,
with the focus of attention remaining on stock markets ahead of Wall
Street's opening, dealers said.
"The dollar has weakened a bit further versus the euro since this
morning, the trend is still intact," said Jane Foley, strategist at
Barclays Capital.
Sentiment is very much against the dollar and the economic
fundamentals are not playing a huge deal in the equation, she added.
Foley believes the reason sentiment has turned against the dollar
is that investors are turning to higher yielding countries, such as
Korea, Poland, South Africa, Australia and Canada.
"Fund managers and investors are looking for higher yields
elsewhere. Because the US has such a large current account deficit, if
we don't have the same amount of flows going into the US every day then
the dollar does respond," she said, adding "that has spurred people to
look elsewhere."
The strategist said Wednesday's testimony, could be crucial as it
will give US Secretary O'Neill the opportunity to defend the US
administration strong dollar policy.
The big question is how far can it extend, does it mark the
beginning of a long term recovery for the euro or is it something which
will just persist for the next few weeks? she asked.
The euro managed to break above the 0.90 usd level, for the first
time since the "notes and coins"-led spike that came to an abrupt end
on January 4, noted Adrian Schmidt, economist at the Royal Bank of
Scotland.
But Schmidt believes that, technically, euro/dollar will look
vulnerable to a push back down to 0.8960 today.
"Fundamentally the euro may struggle to make headway today with
concern over the German IG Metall wage dispute spreading to other euro
states," he said.
Foley also underscored the absence of any particularly supportive
euro news, adding that inflation and wage data are actually pointing
upwards.
"The Italian wage number is actually a deconstructive piece of data
for the euro," she said.
In March hourly wages in Italy rose 0.5 pct from February and were
up 3.2 pct year-on-year.
Meanwhile, sterling weakened somewhat against the euro but remained
well confined to its tight range.
"As long as euro/sterling fairly steady then sterling/dollar
remains driven by euro/dollar," noted Foley.
But the strategist expects some selling interest to hit sterling's
market at current rising level.
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