25 April 2002, 13:10  OECD says US current account deficit, trade frictions could threaten recovery

PARIS (AFX) - The OECD said reliance on the US as the main engine of global growth and the high US current account deficit could threaten the sustainability of the current economic recovery. It said other countries are dependent on US demand to fuel the global expansion, and US borrowing to finance the expansion is set to increase. "While there is no immediate suggestion that the capital inflows needed to finance the US current account deficit could become inadequate, US saving -- public and private -- needs to rise to preempt possible upward pressure on global interest rates," the OECD said in its semiannual Economic Outlook. The US current account deficit is projected to rise to 5 pct of GDP by the second half of 2003, and although foreign investors continue to find US capital markets attractive, even after the recent stock market relapse, such a deficit would represent an extremely high share of world savings "with possible portfolio repercussions on interest rates and the dollar", it said. The OECD said external imbalances can also generate trade frictions, leading to protectionist actions. Indeed, renewed protectionism following the US decision to impose tariffs on steel imports could also threaten the global expansion, it said. The OECD said the US steel tariffs will aversely affect the competitiveness of US steel consumers and might actually stall restructuring of the US steel industry. "Moreover, the measure could have negative implications for the new WTO trade round, given that other countries have already begun to follow suit," it said.

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