25 April 2002, 13:10 OECD says US current account deficit, trade frictions could threaten recovery
PARIS (AFX) - The OECD said reliance on the US as the main engine
of global growth and the high US current account deficit could threaten
the sustainability of the current economic recovery.
It said other countries are dependent on US demand to fuel the
global expansion, and US borrowing to finance the expansion is set to
increase.
"While there is no immediate suggestion that the capital inflows
needed to finance the US current account deficit could become
inadequate, US saving -- public and private -- needs to rise to preempt
possible upward pressure on global interest rates," the OECD said in
its semiannual Economic Outlook.
The US current account deficit is projected to rise to 5 pct of GDP
by the second half of 2003, and although foreign investors continue to
find US capital markets attractive, even after the recent stock market
relapse, such a deficit would represent an extremely high share of
world savings "with possible portfolio repercussions on interest rates
and the dollar", it said.
The OECD said external imbalances can also generate trade
frictions, leading to protectionist actions.
Indeed, renewed protectionism following the US decision to impose
tariffs on steel imports could also threaten the global expansion, it
said.
The OECD said the US steel tariffs will aversely affect the
competitiveness of US steel consumers and might actually stall
restructuring of the US steel industry.
"Moreover, the measure could have negative implications for the new
WTO trade round, given that other countries have already begun to
follow suit," it said.
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