25 April 2002, 11:53 Forex - Dollar down against major currencies in early London trade
LONDON (AFX) - The dollar was down against all other major
currencies in early London trade, weighed down by ongoing weakness in
equity markets
They said that any weakness in today's major US economic data,
including initial jobless claims, existing home sales and Q1 employment
cost index, would keep the downward pressure intact.
"It is a case of broad-based dollar softness, translated into a
sub-129 yen and the euro having a crack at the 0.8950 usd mark", said
Jeremy Hawkins, economist at Bank of America.
People are getting a little bit more cautions about the speed of
recovery in the US, said Hawkins.
He added that weak durable goods orders last night as well as the
Federal Reserve May 7 Beige Book meeting helped a raise a few more
concerns.
"That has been reflected in expectations about the first Fed
monetary tightening being pushed further out," he said.
"This made people a little bit more nervous about the dollar and
that much more concerned about prospects on the current account
deficit," he added.
WestLB Michael Klawitter, agreed. "Although the Fed's Beige Book
was more upbeat than expected, the weakness in the March durable goods
data once again highlighted that the pace of the US economic recovery
is far from clear."
"Risks for a softer dollar are on the rise," they added.
Meanwhile, the euro was trading at the highest level since mid
January, but solely on the back of the softer dollar.
"There really isn't enough goods news coming out of Europe to
justify a stronger euro," said Hawkins.
The start of the strike ballot in the IG Metall area together with
the EU commission forecast yesterday highlighting overshooting budget
deficits, and evidences of European growth underperforming the US, do
not call for a strong currency, he added.
But economists' views diverged as to whether the unit would weather
a weaker-than-expected German Ifo index, due out at 9.00 am today.
Sterling was also firmer ahead of the release of the retail sales
figures for March, due at 9.30 am
Economists' eyes will be on the data, which they said has great
implications for possible Bank of England's monetary policy tightening
in May.
"Anything much stronger than a 0.3 pct rise on the month and
tightening speculations would start picking up again," added Hawkins.
The yen also strenghtened as the dollar softened and as the
Japanese current account surplus continues to rise following a fall
over the last three years.
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