18 April 2002, 09:06 Forex - Dollar lower in midmorning Tokyo on Greenspan, Middle East
TOKYO (AFX-ASIA) - The dollar was lower against the yen in
midmorning trade, hit by renewed uncertainty over the trend for US
interest rates following the overnight congressional testimony by
Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan, dealers said.
Greenspan told the Joint Economic Committee that the strength of
the current economic expansion is still uncertain and low inflation
means the Fed can wait before hiking interest rates.
On the other hand, Greenspan said the Japanese economy is beginning
to show signs of stabilisation as a result of the fact that the US and
Europe "are beginning to firm".
The dollar was also pressured by fears of further conflict in the
Middle East following the failure of US Secretary of State Colin
Powell's peace mission to secure a ceasefire, dealers said.
"It seems that it may now be better if we prepare for an enlarged
downside risk for the dollar," UFJ Trust and Banking Co Ltd customer
sales trader Issaku Taguchi said.
"There is also the view that (Japanese) fund managers are seeking
to shift fund allocation back to domestic assets from foreign assets."
However, the dollar's falls have been limited so far due to
speculation that large-scale buy orders for the US unit will emerge at
around the 130.50 yen level and on concerns over possible verbal
intervention by the Japanese authority, dealers said.
Japanese finance minister Masarujo Shiokawa has recently signalled
that Japan is determined to prevent the appreciation of the yen beyond
the 130/dollar level.
"But, few think the authority will actually intervene the market at
such a level. So, this level is not likely to stand as an invincible
downside support for the dollar," UFJ's Taguchi said.
"If such a level is broken, the dollar may be pushed to its recent
low level (of below 127 yen)."
The euro was firmer due to growing negative sentiment towards the
dollar amid receding expectations for an early rate hike in the US,
dealers said.
"The euro is not likely to reach the 0.90 usd level immediately,
but given the likely increase in interest rate-driven play, its
downside is likely to be gradually lifted up further," Taguchi said.
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