16 April 2002, 12:29 Forex - Major currencies rangebound in early London on lack of leads
LONDON (AFX) - Major currencies were little changed in early trade
on a lack of leads, as market players braced themselves for another day
of tight range trading, dealers said.
"It's like watching paint dry," Ray Attrill, research director at
4Cast said.
"I've never known such a long period when a currency is stuck
around one level," he said, referring to the euro-dollar's impasse
around the 0.88 level.
Economists suggest that the current lack of volatility in the
currency market results from market participants returning to a neutral
position.
Attrill said prolonged range trading could reduce the need to hedge
against risk from the currency markets.
Nick Parsons at Commerzbank said that in the 72 full trading
sessions since January 2, eur-dollar has seen a high-low range of just
5 cents.
"Daily movements of more than one cent are now the exception rather
than the norm," Parsons said.
Market players are hoping that the currency markets will gain some
direction from Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan's testimony to
congress tomorrow.
A string of US data later today including US March CPI and March
industrial production could also provide a lead.
The yen was steady following a sharp dip on "knee jerk selling"
overnight following an S&P downgrade, Attrill said.
Standard & Poor's said it cut Japan's long-term local and foreign
currency sovereign credit ratings to AA- from AA, and maintained its
outlook at negative, due to delays in structural reforms to the
economy.
This puts Japan on a par with Cyprus, the Czech Republic and Malta.
"Yesterday's fall was sharp and brief, with not much
follow-through," Attrill said.
"S&P is usually well behind Moody's, so there's some element of
catch up," he added.
Attrill said there could be further yen falls if Moodys downgrade
Japanese ratings to single A or lower, as this would mean banks holding
JGB's would have to apply a risk weighting.
"This would make them less inclined to hold them," he said.
Sterling was also hardly changed in early trade ahead of this
morning's UK inflation data due at 9.30 am.
Attrill said the RPI-X has sprung a few surprises in the last
couple of months, straying away from the consensus by 0.2 pct points.
"Last month it surprised on the downside and the month on the
upside, so it'll be interesting to see where it goes today," Atrrill
said.
However, he noted that most of the impact from data fluctuations
has been seen in the fixed income markets, rather than currencies.
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