1 April 2002, 10:14 OUTLOOK US data to show economy on rebound as more jobs created
WASHINGTON (AFX) - US data to be released this week will show the
economy is clearly on the rebound as more jobs were created than lost
for the second consecutive month after six months of decline,
economists said.
"The labor market is stabilizing in response to solid final demand
growth and related rundown of inventories," economists at Credit Suisse
First Boston (CSFB)in New York wrote in their weekly research note.
Henry Willmore of Barclays Capital in New York was also bullish on
the upcoming employment data, noting that help-wanted advertising index
has been on an uptrend in the last three months.
"The leading indicators of the job market point to a rise in
payrolls," Willmore said, adding "Even though the (help-wanted index)
levels are much below the highs seen in 2000, it is the percentage
change in this index which is a significant indicator of employment."
The manufacturing sector is clearly out of the year-and-a-half long
recession but activity may have declined slightly after the Institute
for Supply Management's index of economic activity surged last month.
"The February ISM survey broke new ground last month, signalling
that the the manufacturing recovery is in full swing. A small technical
decline would not be surprising in March, however," CSFB economists
said.
Lynn Reaser of Banc of America Capital Management in St. Louis
echoed that sentiment.
"Do not be surprised to see, for example, to see a slight casing in
the ISM's indices of both manufacturing and non-manufacturing activity,
although both measure should remain well above the 50 mark, indicating
expansion," Reaser said.
Despite the increase in payrolls, the unemployment rate likely
increased slightly as more people entered the job market.
"The unemployment rate likely retraced to 5.6 pct, although we
expect that December's 5.8 pct rate will likely hold as the cyclical
peak," said Mickey Levy of Bank of America Securities in New York.
The stronger labor market and increased business activity
demonstrate the economy to be clearly on the rise, but the speed and
strength of the recovery remain in question.
"Now the debate has shifted to how strong the recovery will be and
which areas will lead or lag the rest of the economy," Willmore said.
The following are the consensus forecasts of Wall Street economists
for indicators to be released this week:
FEBRUARY CONSTRUCTION SPENDING, Monday (10.00 am): Economists
forecast that construction spending increased 0.6 pct in February after
spending rose 1.5 pct in January.
MARCH ISM (EX-NAPM) INDEX, Monday (10.00 am): Forecasts indicate
that the Institute for Supply Management's overall index of
manufacturing activity will fall slightly to 54.3 in March after the
index rose sharply to 54.7 in February, the first rise above 50 since
July 2000. An index reading above 50 means that the manufacturing
sector is expanding.
FEBRUARY FACTORY ORDERS, Tuesday (10.00 am): Economists expect
factory orders to have risen 0.9 pct in February after they increased
1.6 pct in the prior month.
MARCH ISM (EX-NAPM) NON-MANUFACTURING INDEX, Wednesday (10.00 am):
Forecasts indicate that the Institute for Supply Management's index of
non-manufacturing activity will drop to 56.1 in March after the index
rose sharply to 58.7 in February.
WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS, Thursday (8.30 am): Initial claims for state
unemployment insurance are forecast to drop 18,000 to 376,000 for the
week ended March 30. The previous week, claims rose 18,000 to 394,000.
MARCH EMPLOYMENT REPORT, Friday (8.30 am): Economists forecast that
non-farm payroll employment will rise by 48,000 in March after rising
by 66,000 in February. The unemployment rate is expected to rise
slightly to 5.6 pct after it fell to 5.5 pct in the previous month.
Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3 pct after growing 0.1
pct in the prior month.
FEBRUARY CONSUMER CREDIT, Friday (3.00 pm): Consumer credit is seen
rising 6.9 bln usd in February, after it rose by 12.9 bln the previous
month.
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