1 April 2002, 09:02 Forex - Yen eases in midmorning Tokyo after Tankan survey
TOKYO (AFX-ASIA) - The yen eased in thin midmorning Tokyo trade
following the slightly disappointing outcome of the Bank of Japan
survey of business sentiment for March but with the currency remaining
within recent ranges, dealers said.
The market remains technically driven in thin trade, given the
Easter holidays overseas, with currencies remaining within recent
ranges.
At 10.00 am, the yen was trading at 133.21 to the dollar, compared
with 132.98 just before the Tankan news, and at 116.10 against the
euro, from 115.93.
The large manufacturers' diffusion index came in at minus 38, with
the large non-manufacturers' DI at minus 22, and large firms' full year
capital expenditure down 6.7 pct.
In June, the large manufacturer diffusion index is expected to
improve to minus 27, with the large non-manufacturer diffusion index
seen at minus 21.
Private-sector economists had forecast the large manufacturers'
diffusion index in March would come in at between minus 33 and minus
36, compared with minus 38 in the last survey in December.
"Investors were disappointed by the latest Takan survey as they
expected an improvement. But the yen is not likely to fall sharply
today because at least the Tankan survey managed not to fall," Hidehiko
Inamura, a senior dealer at CitiBank, said.
"The result of the Tankan March diffusion indices was flat and a
little bit worse than the market expectation," said Koji Fukaya, chief
analyst at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi.
"On the other hand, the June forecast was a little bit better than
expectations, especially manufacturing companies, so it's a very mixed
picture and it cannot have a long-term impact on the market," he said.
"There is a worrying divide between the manufacturers and
non-manufacturers, as well as large and small-sized firms, which shows
Japanese companies are totally dependent on overseas economies. The
fundamentals are not so good."
Fukaya also noted that Japanese firms forecast an average dollar
rate of 124 yen in the new fiscal year in calculating their earnings.
"If the dollar drops to 125 yen, authorities will be cautious about
that level" and may defend it to help sustain Japanese companies'
earnings.
Elsewhere, "the market is waiting for Japanese investors'
investment abroad. We are carefully watching Japanese institutions,"
Fukaya said.
However, he said any outflows may not appear until May, after the
long "Golden Week" holiday, leaving the dollar to consolidate in the
meantime.
"Maybe the dollar is held to 129-134 yen, with no power to break
through 135," Fukaya said.
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