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At 6:50:00 PM Japan Feb Business Confidence (exp n/f, prev n/a)
The dollar looks steady around 132.20 yen after falling to a six week low of 131.57 due to a strong repatriation flows ahead of March 31, the end of fiscal year. Nikkei fell yesterday after gaining almost 6% on Monday and traders are waiting for to see the stock performance today, as the rise could strengthen the yen. Nonetheless it is likely that the USD/JPY will hover around 132.50 area. The dollar got support after ISM non-mfg index jumped to its highest levels since November 2000, boosting market expectations for the faster US recovery. Markets ask the govt. to incorporate tax reform into the anti-deflation package that it is expected to strike as early as this month. Many consider the renewal of private demand through tax reform crucial, especially in reducing the corporate and inheritance tax rates. Panelists on the Forum for Policy Innovation would like to see the BoJ placing inflation target as it would force the central bank to rally all kinds of measures at its disposal in order to attain a preset level of price increases. Many government and ruling party officials have hard-pressed the BOJ to set inflation target.Japan's Oct-Dec cap spending fell 14.5% from previous year. Big firms Jan-Mar sentiment index is at -22.1 (compared with -28.3 for Oct-Dec period) Oct-Dec current profits down 31.4% y/y. Japanese firms see 01/02 sales down 4.2% y/y Japanese companies Oct-Dec sales down 3.8% y/y Japan firms see 01/02 current profits down 23.2% y/y The lower house will likely pass on Wednesday by a majority vote the 81.23 trillion yen budget for fiscal 2002, clearing the way for final Diet approval before the end of the current fiscal year. Japan's Center for Economic Research announced that GDP grew 1.9% from the preceding month in January, the first positive month-on-month GDP growth in three months due to an increase in consumer spending and exports. Resistance is eyed at 132.70, 133.0 and 133.50. Support stands at 132.0, 131.75 and 131.50.
Today, President Bush announced the decision to levy a 30% tariff on steel imports that portends the start of a trade war. The US explained that the tariffs would be "temporary safeguard measures" and would remain in place for three years starting on March 20. Analysts noted that the government was enacting these measures in order to avoid a change in the strong dollar policy and to help the ailing US steel industry in an election year.
EUR/USD is trading around 87.10 after hitting a 1-week high of 87.20, supported by the second consecutive monthly rise in the Eurozone services PMI to 51.1 in February from the prior month's 51.0. In particular, the new business component broke above the key 5-level to 50.6 from 49.7 for the first gain since last summer, thereby spurring hopes that an economic recovery in the Eurozone is imminent. The single currency overlooked a 6,200 count rise in the German unadjusted total to 4.296 mln today, while Euroarea unemployment eased to 8.4% in January. Increasing signs of a turnaround in the Eurozone are thus fueling the prevailing belief that the European Central Bank will keep rates unchanged at 3.25% this Thursday at its monetary policy meeting and may even raise rates later in the year. Resistance is seen at 87.20, 87.40 and 87.80. Support is viewed at 86.30, backed by the 86.0-cent figure, and 85.50.
Major data due from the US this week consist of factory orders, the Fed Beige Book, jobless claims, productivity, consumer credit, and the labor market report. Key Eurozone indicators include German manufacturing orders, German unemployment, ECB rate decision, Italian GDP and Dutch CPI. The main data releases from the UK are the NTC/FRES report on jobs, housing starts and the Bank of England's rate decision. Highlights from Japan comprise the MoF corporate survey, trade balance, indices of business conditions, GDP, money supply and wholesale prices.