28 March 2002, 17:17 OUTLOOK ECB rates seen on hold April 4; Q4 rate hike next move
PARIS (AFX) - The European Central Bank will keep leading interest
rates unchanged at next Thursday's governing council meeting, according
to a poll of economists by AFX News and Agence France-Presse.
Of 30 economists polled, all said they expect the minimum bid rate
on ECB refinancing operations to be kept at 3.25 pct at Thursday's
meeting.
And all now say that the easing cycle in ECB monetary policy is at
an end, with the next move in ECB rates seen as a tightening move, most
likely towards the end of the year.
A majority of those polled -- 17 of the 30 -- said they expect the
ECB to hike rates in the fourth quarter. Six expect the ECB to move
before then, with the earliest forecast for a June tightening move. One
forecast that rates would be raised in September or October.
The remaining six said rates would be left unchanged for the rest
of the year or that the next move would be a rate hike in 2003.
Most economists expect the refi rate to be slightly higher than now
at the end of the year, with 22 of the 30 economists polled forecasting
an end-year rate of 3.50 or 3.75 pct.
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