27 March 2002, 09:10 Forex - Dollar rangebound in midafternoon Tokyo ahead of Easter holidays
TOKYO (AFX-ASIA) - The dollar was rangebound against the yen in
midafternoon trading due to the absence of foreign investors ahead of
the approaching Easter holidays, dealers said.
While a firmer performance on the local stock market is preventing
any sharp appreciation of the dollar against the yen, concerns over
massive capital outflows form Japan in the new fiscal year are
supporting the US currency, they said.
Comments made overnight by William McDonough, President of the
Federal Reserve Bank of New York also pressured the top-side of the
dollar, dealers said.
"The exchange rate, if you look at purchasing power parity, the
dollar is slightly overvalued," he said.
North Pacific Bank foreign exchange manager Toshikazu Shimamura
said McDonough's remarks, since they provoked speculation about the
underlying wish at the Fed for a shift from a strong dollar policy, are
likely to continue to discourage investors from re-testing the top-side
of the dollar immediately.
"Whether or not the US administration will gear up towards a shift
in the foreign exchange policy will continue to be the focus of the
market this year," he said.
In addition, many investors adopted a wait-and-see stance ahead of
the release of major economic indicators, including industrial
production data, seeking confirmation of ongoing improvement in local
economic activity, dealers said.
The Bank of Japan will also announce on Monday the quarterly Tankan
report on business sentiment.
"Now that the market has largely priced in expectations of a likely
improvement in the local economy, we need solid evidence that the
economy has finally started to move forward," Shimamura said.
"Without such evidence, we are unable to buy up the yen so
aggressively."
The market is also watching closely the investment stance of
domestic institutional and retail investors following the introduction
of a limited depositor protection scheme, or 'pay-off' from April,
dealers said.
"It is far from clear what the extent of capital outflow related to
the implementation of 'pay-off' will be, but it seems to be almost
certain that local investors will not reduce their allocation in
foreign assets," Shimamura said.
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