26 March 2002, 12:59  Forex - Major currencies rangebound in early London trade

LONDON (AFX) - Major currencies were mostly rangebound in early trade shrugging off the effects of weak stock markets and continued growth in the key German Ifo business climate index, dealers said. The Ifo index rose for the fifth straight month but the increase had been widely expected, watering down much of its impact. US data scheduled for later in the afternoon is also keeping players on the sidelines, they added. According to Micheal Klawitter, economist at West LB, although the German Ifo index rose in March, risks in euro-dollar are not balanced. The euro-dollar cross is unlikely to benefit much from the strong number as market participants will be hesitant to act ahead of the key US data. "With today's US economic data releases - durable goods orders and consumer confidence, likely to surprise to the upside which should be bullish for US equities, the USD is expected to move higher," he said. The risk of a wider trade war from the US decision to impose steel tariffs seems to be small. While the near-term impact on the dollar should be small, such an outcome certainly improves the dollar's longer-term fundamentals. Elsewhere, Klawitter noted that market participants are re-establishing dollar-yen long positions as worries about repatriation flows fade while the economic outlook for Japan remains gloomy. "The government's suggestion to increase the sales tax certainly did little to change this view. Nevertheless, given the support the yen will get from the rising current account surplus as world trade should recover in coming months, we are reluctant to call for much further yen weakness," he added. With the euro-Swiss franc cross breaking the 1.46 barrier, the threat of intervention to weaken the franc seems a distinct possibility, dealers said. "Comments by the President of the Swiss National Bank once again indicate their discontent with the current strength of the franc. Ahead of the so-called war summit between Bush and Blair in Texas at the weekend, the Swiss franc will however remain well bid." he added. The Argentinean peso continued its free fall as the government's introduction of emergency measures failed to convince markets.

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