25 March 2002, 12:33 Forex - Dollar up in early London trade with focus on US consumer confidence
LONDON (AFX) - The dollar was up in early London trade despite US
equities' poor performance on Friday, with sentiment remaining solid
ahead of the key March US consumer confidence on Tuesday dealers said.
"The dollar started the week on a brighter note ahead of Federal
Greenspan Greenspan speech at 10.00 pm tonight", said Audrey
Childe-Freeman, economist at CIBC World Markets.
The focus of attention is on tomorrow's consumer confidence. After
the disappointing outcome in February on the back of concerns from the
Enron scandal, the dollar is doing better ahead of March's release in
anticipation of a rebound, she added.
Today will see the release of US existing home sales for February
at 3.00 pm together with the NABE release of semi-annual economic
policy at 3.15 pm.
Any upside surprise on the data front will lift the US currency
higher, while weaker-than-expected data should only do limited harm,
said WestLB Research analysts.
With the last trading week before the end of the fiscal year having
started, talks about Japanese repatriation flows has left the market
somewhat nervous, said analysts.
But Childe-Freeman does not believe the flows to be of concerns.
"Investors realise that once March 31 is out of the way, attention
will refocus on the fundamental picture," she said.
Evidences are that the Japanese economy has kept on deteriorating
compared with a recovery scenario in the US and euro zone.
Meanwhile, the euro failed to react to Bundesbank president Ernst
Welteke's comments that the European Central Bank should be able
continue with its "steady hand" monetary policy for the foreseeable
future.
Speaking in an interview with the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung,
Welteke added that expectations of an economic upswing in the euro area
for Spring are based more on hopes than hard facts.
Against this backdrop, data shows that speculative accounts have
increased their euro long position to the highest level since Oct 12.
Given the improved usd sentiment plus the lacking euro positive
arguments, the balance of risk clearly favours a downward move in
euro/dollar, WestLB analysts said.
Of news, consumer prices in the state of North Rhine Westphalia
registered a 0.2 pct rise in March from February, and were up 1.6 pct
from last year.
Economists said there is still a good chance of euro zone inflation
in March at 0.2 pct for a 2.1 pct annual rise versus 2.4 pct in Feb.
Separately, noting a rise in gold prices --which indicates a
significant increase in risk aversion --WestLB added that risks in
euro/swiss franc were to the downside.
Sterling's performance reflected that of the euro/dollar pair,
trading lower than Friday's close, amid a lack of domestic leads to
trade on.
© 1999-2024 Forex EuroClub
All rights reserved