20 March 2002, 15:24  Forex - Major currencies range-bound midday London after US Fed goes neutral

LONDON (AFX) - Major currencies were stuck in narrow ranges against each other in midday trade with the market struggling for direction following the US Federal Reserve's decision to switch to a neutral policy bias, dealers said. "The overall tone of the Fed statement is decidedly neutral. The market took the shift in the bias very well," Jeremy Hawkins, economist at Bank of America said. There had been fears that the statement following the Fed decision may come in a little bit on the hawkish side. In the end, the fears were unwarranted, Hawkins said. The neutral tone is helping the dollar keep steady against the euro, he added. Divyang Shah, currency strategist at IDEAglobal.com said the market is factoring in a 70-75 pct probability of a 25 basis point hike at each of the next two Fed meetings. "In contrast, the ECB with its less activist stance seems happy to remain neutral and keep the powder dry until the second half," he said. In combination, these factors will make it tough for the dollar to rally significantly, he added. "US steel tariffs kick-in today and with Japan and Europe going to the WTO the prospect of increasing trade tensions is likely to limit the euro's downside," Shah said. The dollar failed to make much headway against the yen for all of Japan's economic problems. Today's movements were limited by options related factors, Hawkins at Bank of America said. For the same reasons, the yen ticked higher against most majors. Sterling was also little changed despite a seemingly favourable run of UK data. After benign inflation, if today's data is anything to go by, wage pressures are well under control, Hawkins said. But a more upbeat set of minutes from the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee and further tightening in the labour market raised fears that UK rates will be on their way up before too long, economists said. Two other countries with inflation targets, Sweden and New Zealand have already moved to hike interest rates. The Swedish krona continued to nudge higher against the euro after the rate increase on "convergence" type trades, Hawkins said.

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