19 March 2002, 12:28  Forex - Dollar firmer in early London trade ahead of FOMC meeting _

LONDON (AFX) - The dollar stole a march on major currencies in early trade with the market viewing the US Fed's likely move to a neutral bias as a further sign of recovery, dealers said. No change to US interest rates is likely when the US Federal Open Market Committee makes a decision later today but the easing bias is widely expected to come to an end. "The main mover this morning is dollar-yen, with hedge funds starting to buy dollars again," Julian Jessop, economist at Standard Chartered said. Demand for the dollar pushed the yen lower against all the majors. The general view is that a move to a neutral bias will be an official signal that the US economy has turned the corner, thus proving favourable for the dollar, he added. "As long as the FOMC acts in accordance with market expectations and returns to a neutral bias, there should be little immediate reaction," Michael Klawitter, strategist at West LB said. The return to a neutral stance will not be negative for the dollar as it will not weigh on US equities, he added. "Equity valuation models largely use the long-term yield as a discount factor, rather than short-term rates. Long-term yields have however already risen sharply in recent months and should be little affected by today's FOMC announcement," he said. The dollar was also marginally higher against the euro for the same reasons. But the euro was also affected by threats of strikes made by IG Metall - Germany's largest trade union. Further, the French Prime Minister Lionel Jospin's election promise to cut taxes by 18 bln eur also weighed on the single currency. Against this backdrop, the probable increase in the German ZEW economic confidence index for March is likely to be foreshadowed, Klawitter said. Sterling tracked the euro to move lower against the dollar. Later this morning, UK Feb inflation data is seen showing that price pressures have started to wane after January's surprise increase. But a dip below the 2.5 pct official target will not ease rate hike expectations although sterling will be vulnerable to any upside surprise, dealers said. The Swedish krona moved back to its level at the start of the day after a brief surge in the wake of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Riksbank. The rate increase was widely expected. "It is very choppy for the krona but recently markets have rewarded pro- growth monetary policy," Jessop at Standard Chartered said.

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