15 March 2002, 13:28  German Metals Employers May Offer Workers Wage Increase Today

Frankfurt, March 15 (Bloomberg) -- German employers probably will offer today to raise wages for more than 800,000 metals, electronics and car workers at 1,100 companies, including DaimlerChrysler AG and Robert Bosch GmbH. The Gesamtmetall metals employers' association in the state of Baden-Wuerttemberg will enter a third round of talks with the IG Metall union, Germany's second-largest. Workers are seeking 6.5 percent more pay and haven't ruled out strikes. ``It's possible we'll make an offer,'' said Hubertus Engemann, spokesman for Gesamtmetall in Baden-Wuerttemberg. ``The top priority is to secure jobs. We're still in recession and many companies still have to scale back production.'' An offer by Germany's No. 1 employers' association would give workers, politicians, analysts and central bankers a first hint about how large this year's wage gain in the industry may be. The European Central Bank says wage moderation is crucial to prevent inflation from accelerating again. A nationwide agreement between IG Metall and Gesamtmetall would affect more than 3.6 million workers. IG Metall usually gets as much as 60 percent of what it demands, analysts said. Talks will begin in the southern city of Stuttgart at 11 a.m. local time. Lengthy negotiations and looming strikes ``could be a danger for growth because the rebound isn't yet fully assured,'' said Reinhold Knaus, an economist at Metzler Asset Management in Frankfurt, which oversees about 10 billion euros ($8.8 billion) in bonds and stocks.

Elections
The German economy slipped into recession in the second half of last year. Signs of a recovery in the U.S., destination of a 10th of the country's exports, and increasing optimism among German executives suggest that the economy may be past the worst. German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder has said he hopes the talks will be ``strike-free'' and take ``into account an economy that is beginning to recover as well as justified claims'' for higher wages. Schroeder, who is seeking re-election in September, failed to pare unemployment last year. Four years ago, he won the election on pledges to create more jobs. Under labor law, IG Metall may strike in support of wage claims from next month. IG Metall's proposal -- echoed by the Ver.di union for more than 900,000 banking, insurance and postal workers -- is almost four times Germany's 1.7 percent inflation rate. The inflation rate in the dozen nations sharing the euro is 2.5 percent, more than the 2 percent the ECB tolerates. The bank yesterday said, ``Wage moderation in the euro area is not only crucial for the maintenance of price stability but also to foster employment growth.''

`Part of the Ritual'
Any wage proposal by employers today is unlikely to satisfy IG Metall, analysts say. ``IG Metall officials will sneer at the offer, that's part of the ritual,'' said Eckhard Tuchtfeld, an economist at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. ``They know employers won't fully exhaust their room for maneuver at this point.'' German workers may walk away with average wage increases of about 3 percent this year, which wouldn't create jobs or fuel inflation in Europe's largest economy, analysts say. Companies announced at least 130,000 job cuts last year. Two years ago, IG Metall brokered a 3 percent wage increase for 2000 and a further 2.1 percent raise for 2001, after originally demanding 5.5 percent more pay.

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