14 March 2002, 14:20 ECB says improving business sentiment reflects real conditions, not just hopes
FRANKFURT (AFX) - The European Central Bank said the recent strong
recovery in euro zone business sentiment now reflects real economic
conditions, and not just expectations.
Previously the ECB had said that the improvement in business
sentiment was not yet reflected in real activity data.
In its March monthly bulletin, the ECB highlighted the improvement
in industrialists' assessment of order books in the February European
Commission business survey. This was the first time that this
assessment has improved after a protracted period of deterioration, it
said.
"This suggests that the recent improvement in business sentiment
now also reflects actual conditions as well as expectations," it said.
The ECB said indications of a recovery in the euro zone industrial
sector are still mainly confined to survey data, but such surveys have
a solid track record in predicting actual activity trends.
"The coincident and stable relationship between business confidence
and production in manufacturing suggests that the signs of a turning
point in confidence around the turn of the year also point to a
possible recovery in production growth," it said.
The results of various business surveys point to a marked
improvement in confidence in January and February, with the cumulative
increase in the euro zone purchasing managers' index over this period
unprecedented in the short history of the PMI survey, it said.
This points to a turning point in the rate of growth in
manufacturing production, it said.
Indicators of activity in the consumer sector are generally more
volatile than those for the industrial sector, and consumer data do not
yet give any clear signals on trends at the turn of the year, the ECB
said.
"The pattern of consumer confidence observed around the turn of the
year does not...provide clear indications that the decline in consumer
confidence could have reached a trough," it said.
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