14 March 2002, 13:18 Japan Cabinet upgrades economic assessment; exports bottoming
TOKYO (AFX-ASIA) - The Cabinet Office upgraded its assessment of
the economy in March for the first time since June 2000, saying exports
are bottoming out and industrial production is also showing signs of
reaching a trough.
However, the office said it has not changed the outlook for the
economy, arguing downward risks remain due to the severe climate for
employment and household income, as well as sharp falls in corporate
profit.
"The Japanese economy is showing signs of bottoming out in some
areas, although the economy continues to be in a difficult situation,"
the office said.
Last month, it said the economy is "continuing to deteriorate."
The office upgraded the March assessment for private consumption
from "weakening" to "flat".
It also upgraded its assessment for exports and imports, as well as
industrial production and wholesale prices, while it downgraded the
assessment for corporate capital investment and left employment
unchanged.
"Private consumption is flat, exports are bottoming out and
industrial production is also showing signs of bottoming out," it said.
The previous assessment said exports are "showing signs of
bottoming out", while the imports assessment was upgraded to "flat"
from "moderate decline".
A Cabinet Office official said improving conditions in the
information technology sector have been spreading to other areas,
allowing the office to raise its overall output assessment.
"Production in March is showing signs of bottoming out, a contrast
with the previous month that was reported as a moderate decline,
because the improvement in IT-related production has spread to other
industrial areas," he said.
The official also attributed the move to "progress in inventory
adjustment and the narrower decline in exports".
The Cabinet Office upgraded its assessment of the inventory ratio
to "declining" from "high levels".
The improvement in inventories also helped the view of wholesale
prices, which was upgraded to "narrower decline" from "falling".
"Wholesale prices data in February showed a narrower decline on
improved electrical-product prices, helped by inventory adjustments, as
well as international oil, coal and non-ferrous metals prices," the
official said.
On the otherhand, the employment assessment was left unchanged.
"Business investment is declining significantly. The employment
situation has become increasingly severe, with the unemployment rate at
a high level," the Cabinet Office said.
The wording on the economic outlook was altered but the overall
assessment was unchanged.
"The Cabinet Office hopes improvement in the external economic
situation and progress in domestic inventory adjustments will underpin
the economy (in the future)," the office said.
Last month, it noted that some signs of improvement in the US and
some Asian countries may help the Japanese economy.
"We are not optimistic about the outlook because there is a
downward risk from the ongoing severe situation in employment and
household income," the official said.
The Cabinet Office omitted the previous phrase on concerns over
"negative factors in the development of the financial markets", but
replaced it with "the development of corporate profits".
The official cited the Ministry of Finance's recently announced
survey that showed parent-level pretax profit of non-financial
companies in the fourth quarter falling by 31.4 pct year-on-year.
He added that, regardless, the office needs "to continue closely
watching the financial markets."
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