14 March 2002, 12:16 Forex - Euro up in early directionless London trade ahead of EU summit
LONDON (AFX) - The euro was up in early London trade, still
benefiting from yesterday's retail sales result which cast a shadow
over the level of indebtness in the US, ahead of the EU summit, dealers
said.
They added that currencies were lacking a clear trend due to
uncertainties about the impact of possible military action against
Iraq.
The euro's sharp upward response to the release of US retail sales
data indicates that the balance of risk favours the upside, said
Michael Klawitter at WestLB.
"However, ahead of the EU summit in Barcelona, euro bulls are
unlikely to gain the upper hand and some further range trading should
be the name of the game," he added.
Sentiment was further helped by the news of a 0.3 pct rise in the
French employment in the fourth quarter.
Separately, France's industrial production recorded the strongest
month-on-month rise since July 2001 at 0.6 pct, with the 0.9 pct rise
in manufacturing production the strongest since July 2000.
The European Central Bank monthly bulletin, due at 9.00 am, is
expected to reinforce expectations for a gradual economic recovery.
"With an overwhelming majority of recent anecdotal economic
releases suggesting that a recovery is now well underway, we would
expect the ECB to reiterate its more optimistic growth assessment,"
said CIBC World Markets economist Audrey Childe-Freeman.
"The recent question marks regarding the supremacy of the dollar
may continue to benefit the euro/dollar and euro/sterling pairs in the
near term, while we do not see the slightest fundamental reason to sell
euro/yen at this stage," she added.
Meanwhile the US dollar was standing at the lower end of its recent
trading range, pulled lower by a sell-off in US equities overnight.
Observers said that while a military conflict would lead to safe
haven flows into the dollar, higher oil prices could undermine the US
economic recovery and would increase the US deficit, via a rise in
imports.
Sterling initially came under pressure, particularly versus the
euro, from the announcement by British pension funds that some of its
clients should return into the public pension system as its returns may
be below expectations.
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