LONDON (AFX) - Euro zone economic figures in the coming week are expected to confirm that the downturn reached rock-bottom at the end of last year and that a fledgling recovery is under way, according to economists. They said preliminary GDP figures for the fourth quarter will show the euro zone economy shrank from the previous quarter and slowed sharply from a year earlier. "The fourth quarter of 2001 will be regarded as the bottom in the euro zone cycle, with an expected 0.2 pct contraction on the quarter and a sharp slowdown to 0.6 pct on the year," Bank of America economist Lorenzo Codogno said. HSBC economists too predicted: "This will be the first quarter of falling euro zone GDP in the region in the current cycle and almost certainly the last." Economists said German retail sales data coupled with French and Italian industrial output figures are expected to vindicate the view that the euro zone economy has turned the corner, economists said. Codogno, like other economists, predicted a modest rebound in German sales after the 3.4 pct month-on-month plunge. "All in all, a quick pick-up in spending is not in sight," he cautioned however. BNP Paribas economists also warned: "With the pace of improvement in consumer sentiment likely to be restrained by continued rises in unemployment, retail sales growth should remain subdued in the coming months." BNP Paribas economists noted that France posted a large dip in industrial output in December, while Italy registered a sharp fall in November. "Industrial production is currently enjoying a recovery from such low levels, with an expected 0.8 pct month-on-month gain in Italy and a 0.5 pct rise in France," they said. "However, the January year-on-year rate is likely to continue to show the underlying weakness of industrial activity," they warned. Codogno said the outlook for the French manufacturing sector has recently improved "but January's conditions were still rather depressed". HSBC economists said of France: "The surveys are pointing to a recovery starting in the first quarter and we expect a modest rise in production in January." On Italy, he said: "The worst appears to be over for industry, but the recovery is still rather weak."