8 February 2002, 12:09 Forex - Euro firms in early London trade as sentiment moves against the dollar
LONDON (AFX) - The euro continued to gain ground in early trade on
dollar weakness related to accounting uncertainties among US corporates
and some relatively positive economic news from the euro zone, dealers
said.
Rob Hayward, currency strategist at ABN Amro said the euro could
rally up to 0.8870 usd over the next couple of days if it breaks
through the 0.8730 barrier.
He attributed the recent strength to two factors.
"One is the move against the dollar, related to problems regarding
US corporations and a growing belief that most of the good news on the
economic front has been factored in," he said.
The second is a better outlook for the euro, due to a coincidence
of factors like better economic data and yesterday's decision by
European Central Bank president Wim Duisenberg to stand down in July
2003.
However, Hans Redeker, chief currency strategist at BNP Paribas,
remains sceptical about the prospects of the euro zone economy.
"It would be heroic to assume that Europe will generate growth
momentum independently," he said. There is no fiscal support and
monetary policy remains tighter than elsewhere, he said.
Nevertheless, the euro could gain some ground over the next couple
of trading sessions on a sudden change in portfolio flows as a result
of accounting problems brought on by the collapse of Enron.
He noted that there's been a sharp sell-off in junk bond markets
and lower quality paper.
"This is a normal technical correction," he said. "In next few
months, the US asset markets will be investors' darling."
The G7 meeting this weekend is unlikely to influence matters too
much and a communique reference to currency levels is unlikely, he
said.
However the US may moan a little about the lack of pace of
structural reforms in Japan, he added.
The decision by the Bank of Japan to leave monetary policy
unchanged failed to excite though the recent improvement in banking
shares as a result of proposed equity purchases by the Bank of Japan
has lifted the yen.
Meanwhile sterling was much weaker, partly because of the euro's
continuing appreciation, but ABN's Hayward suggested that this
morning's opinion poll by ICM for No, the anti-euro campaign, hasn't
helped matters.
According to the poll British entry into the euro zone is
hardening. It found that the majority against British membership had
risen to 60-27 compared with 56-31 only a month ago.
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