6 February 2002, 15:27  Forex - Dollar softer in flat midday London trade ahead of US Q4 productivity

LONDON (AFX) - The dollar was mildly lower in flat midday London trade, awaiting the release of fourth quarter US productivity numbers for direction, dealers said. They added that there was little drive in the market as the dollar bore a little bit of a short-term risk from the Enron fall out on the equity markets. Credit Agricole Indosuez's Mital Kotecha, highlighted that the currency market had been following equity markets "very closely". The fact that equities still remain soft led by the US, has pulled a little bit of a restraint on the dollar but this is going to be temporary, he said. "Economic releases are generally more favourable in the US compared to elsewhere. The fact that inflows of capital still seem to be moving towards the US suggest that the dollar should remain firm, but it still has to get over the short-term obstacles such as the general vulnerability on equities for now," he said. In the absence of hard data, Kotecha said productivity numbers may bear a little bit more significance on the currency. "We still think that the dollar is going to be firm. Today's numbers should help it strand up," he said. Meanwhile, the euro was little changed following the release of German unemployment numbers rising by 31,000 in January from December but analysts said the bias remains to the downside. The rise was more severe than that predicted by economists. Divyang Shah, analyst at IDEAglobal said the G7 meeting threatens to open up a rift between the US and eurozone as the former continues to feel that euro zone policy makers are not playing their role in supporting global growth. "This will only add to downside pressure on euro/dollar especially if the G7 maintains their upbeat assessment of the US and global growth outlook," he said. In the UK, sterling was broadly lower, despite further evidence of buoyant consumer sector in the shape of strong house prices. But according to Royal Bank of Scotland's Adrian Schmidt, sterling is less comfortable than other European currencies in a high risk environment. "The UK current account deficit, and the EMU issue and sterling overvaluation make sterling less attractive from a longer-term perspective, particularly if global manufacturing is recovering," he said. But in the short term analysts see little reason to expect a break below this year's lows at 1.4050 usd.

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