6 February 2002, 15:27 Forex - Dollar softer in flat midday London trade ahead of US Q4 productivity
LONDON (AFX) - The dollar was mildly lower in flat midday London
trade, awaiting the release of fourth quarter US productivity numbers
for direction, dealers said.
They added that there was little drive in the market as the dollar
bore a little bit of a short-term risk from the Enron fall out on the
equity markets.
Credit Agricole Indosuez's Mital Kotecha, highlighted that the
currency market had been following equity markets "very closely".
The fact that equities still remain soft led by the US, has pulled
a little bit of a restraint on the dollar but this is going to be
temporary, he said.
"Economic releases are generally more favourable in the US compared
to elsewhere. The fact that inflows of capital still seem to be moving
towards the US suggest that the dollar should remain firm, but it still
has to get over the short-term obstacles such as the general
vulnerability on equities for now," he said.
In the absence of hard data, Kotecha said productivity numbers may
bear a little bit more significance on the currency.
"We still think that the dollar is going to be firm. Today's
numbers should help it strand up," he said.
Meanwhile, the euro was little changed following the release of
German unemployment numbers rising by 31,000 in January from December
but analysts said the bias remains to the downside. The rise was more
severe than that predicted by economists.
Divyang Shah, analyst at IDEAglobal said the G7 meeting threatens
to open up a rift between the US and eurozone as the former continues
to feel that euro zone policy makers are not playing their role in
supporting global growth.
"This will only add to downside pressure on euro/dollar especially
if the G7 maintains their upbeat assessment of the US and global growth
outlook," he said.
In the UK, sterling was broadly lower, despite further evidence of
buoyant consumer sector in the shape of strong house prices.
But according to Royal Bank of Scotland's Adrian Schmidt, sterling
is less comfortable than other European currencies in a high risk
environment.
"The UK current account deficit, and the EMU issue and sterling
overvaluation make sterling less attractive from a longer-term
perspective, particularly if global manufacturing is recovering," he
said.
But in the short term analysts see little reason to expect a break
below this year's lows at 1.4050 usd.
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