5 February 2002, 09:30 Forex - Dollar rebounds vs yen in Tokyo midafternoon amid weak Japan equities
TOKYO (AFX-ASIA) - The dollar was slightly higher against the yen
in midafternoon trade on a technical rebound as investors bought the US
unit amid weakness in Japan's equity market, dealers said.
They said, however, that the rebound was not very convincing
considering the dollar's sharper fall against the yen seen earlier this
morning.
Aozora Bank deputy manager of forex trading group Hiroyoshi
Kinoshita said the dollar's rebound in the afternoon session was "very
weak" and it is possible that the dollar will fall back below 130.00
yen within a month.
"It seems like there are option-linked dollar sell orders waiting
at around the 131.50 yen level. If this dollar-selling really happens,
it is possible that the current strong dollar trend against the yen
will change," he said.
Kinoshita said he expects the G7 finance ministers to release only
very neutral comments about the forex market at their meeting this week
in Ottawa.
"I think comments by the G7 finance ministers will be neutral, such
as saying they respect market forces moving the forex market."
Kinoshita said such comments will likely boost whatever is the
prevailing sentiment at that time.
"If there is a strong yen trend at that time, it is possible that
the yen will rise sharply" after the ministers issue such comments, he
said.
However, Kinoshita said a further rise in the yen will be offset if
the Bank of Japan decides to implement a further monetary easing at its
monthly monetary board meeting at the end of the week.
"The majority of market participants are expecting that the BoJ
will hold its policy unchanged. But there is a slight chance that it
will decide to start a further monetary easing, such as deciding to buy
foreign bonds," he said.
"If the BoJ decides on something new at the next meeting, it will
likely affect the yen negatively."
The euro was rangebound against other major currencies ahead of the
European Central Bank council meeting Thursday, dealers said.
Kinoshita said most investors expect the ECB will hold rates
unchanged, adding that the euro will likely continue its weak tone for
the time being.
"It appears that the euro was bought this morning in line with a
weak dollar. But I don't think the current weak tone of the euro will
change because there are no new leads to change that trend," he said.
He added that a falling euro trend will continue if the ECB decides
to hold its rates unchanged.
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