28 February 2002, 16:37 US Q4 GDP up 1.4 pct annualized vs 0.2 previous estimate
WASHINGTON (AFX) - The US economy expanded at at a 1.4 pct annual
rate in the fourth quarter, a faster pace than the previous estimate of
a 0.2 pct growth rate, the Commerce Department said.
This is the strongest quarterly growth rate since Q4 2000.
The upward revision was higher than expected. The consensus
forecast of Wall Street economists was for Q4 GDP to be revised upward
to 1.1 pct annual growth. The economy contracted at a 1.3 pct rate in
the third quarter.
The upward revision reflects a lower trade deficit and stronger
consumer spending than initially estimated and new data on factory
shipments of aircraft, and government spending.
The upward revision does not substantially change the overall
picture of the economy in the Sept-Dec quarter where the consumer and
housing sectors were solid, but business investment remained weak and
companies continued to shed inventories.
The trade sector was less of a drag on Q4 growth, subtracting 0.35
percentage points, down from the initial estimate of 0.85 percentage
points.
Exports fell at a revised 12.2 pct rate in the fourth quarter, up
from the initial estimate of a 12.4 pct fall.
Imports fell at a revised 6.9 pct rate in the fourth quarter, down
from the initial estimate of a 3.4 pct decline.
Consumer spending rose at a revised 6.0 pct rate in the fourth
quarter, up from the initial estimate of a 5.4 pct gain.
The bulk of the upward revision came from spending on durable
goods, which rose a revised 39.2 pct in the fourth quarter, up from the
initial estimate of a 38.4 pct gain. This is the largest quarterly
increase in spending on durable goods since Q3 1986.
Spending on nondurables rose at a revised 2.4 pct annual rate, up
from the initial estimate of a 0.9 pct gain.
Inventories fell a revised 120.0 bln usd in the fourth quarter,
compared with the initial estimate of a reduction of 120.6 bln usd. As
a result, the change in inventories subtracted 2.19 percentage points
from GDP growth, down from the initial estimate that inventories cut
2.23 percentage points from growth. Despite the slight revision, this
is still the largest quarterly draw down in inventories on record.
Final sales - GDP growth minus inventory behavior -- rose a
revised 3.6 pct in the fourth quarter, up from the previous estimate of
a 2.5 pct gain. This is the strongest increase since Q1 2001.
The GDP chain-weighted price index fell a revised 0.2 pct in the
fourth quarter, up from the initial estimate of a 0.3 pct fall.
Excluding food and energy prices, the GDP chain-weighted index rose
0.2 pct, unrevised from the previous estimate.
The consumption price index rose a revised 0.7 pct in the fourth
quarter, down slightly from the previous estimate of a 0.8 pct
increase.
Excluding food and energy prices, the consumption price index rose
a revised 2.6 pct in the fourth quarter, down from the intial estimate
of a 2.8 pct rise.
Business investment fell at a revised 13.1 pct annual rate in the
fourth quarter, down from the initial estimate of a 12.8 pct drop.
Software purchases fell at a revised 4.8 pct rate, up from the
initial estimate of a 5.2 pct fall.
Government spending rose a revised 10.1 pct rate in the fourth
quarter, faster than the initial estimate of a 9.2 pct rise. Nondefense
spending rose at a revised 15.7 pct rate, up from the initial estimate
of a 9.9 pct gain.
This is the first revision to Q4 GDP data. A second and final
revision will be released on March 28.
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