28 February 2002, 08:06 Forex - Dollar/yen eases in midmorning Tokyo ahead of BoJ policy decision
TOKYO (AFX-ASIA) - The dollar/yen eased ahead of the Bank of
Japan's decision on interest rates and after the release yesterday of a
government anti-deflation package seen mainly as a rehash of old
measures, dealers said.
The yen was supported by strong gains in the domestic equity market
after package, though these are seen mainly due to new restrictions on
short-selling, dealers said, with suspicions the government may also be
buying stocks.
The market has already discounted a nominal or technical change to
the central bank's monetary policy following renewed political pressure
on the bank to offer further impetus to the economy, they added.
"Likely, they may do something on the rinban (outright government
bond purchases) but it's already priced into the market," said Kenneth
Landon, senior currency strategist at Deutsche Bank.
The Nihon Keizai newspaper reported this morning, without citing
sources, that the central bank is expected to ease further, responding
to a government call for a coordinated effort with the government to
fight deflation.
The bank will likely discuss an increase in its outright purchase
of long-term government bonds from the current 800 bln yen a month and
a cut in the official discount rate from the current 0.1 pct, it said.
The government said yesterday that it will act to secure the
stability of the financial system, including the possibility of
boosting capital in the sector, as part of its measures to counter
deflation.
It will also study measures taken in the US and UK to understand
better the movement of prices, though it did not elaborate on the exact
measures or whether this meant the creation of a price or inflation
target.
The Bank of Japan will be asked to take bold policy action and to
provide necessary funds for financial institutions that face
difficulties, it said.
"It was as expected, nothing new," Landon said of the measures.
However, some noted the positive reaction in the local stockmarket
and hopes that the benchmark Nikkei 225 stock index may begin to find a
bottom.
"If you take a look at the equity markets, the Nikkei has gone up a
couple of hundred yen," said Yasuji Yamanaka, foreign exchange manager
for Nikko Trust and Banking.
"It is trending toward 11,000. If it breaks 11,000 then we
definitely can confirm that we hit the bottom on the Nikkei."
Others were more sceptical.
"There is some suspicion that the equity market is not operating
freely at the moment," said ING Barings chief economist Richard Jerram.
"The government announces the deflation package and the stockmarket
goes up 3 pct, they are putting pressure on short selling and there are
hints of PKO (price keeping operations)," he said.
"If the government can't find anyone else to buy the market then it
makes perfect sense to buy it themselves. It is very short sighted."
Economists noted some hints in the government's package that could
suggest the possible creation of a price target but added this is
likely to remain a controversial and politically difficult move to
enact.
A price target "is a more drastic easing measure than inflation
targeting, since ... prices should be hiked by 2.5 pct or more," UBS
Warburg economist Ayako Mitsui said. "We believe it's still an
unrealistic suggestion."
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