27 February 2002, 14:06  Weak UK Q4 GDP may mark bottom in economic cycle

LONDON (AFX) - The unexpected downward revision to UK Q4 GDP growth could well mark the low point in the country's economic cycle, indicating that a recovery is on the cards, according to economists. Data released this morning showed that the UK economy suffered its worst quarterly performance since the second quarter of 1992. UK fourth quarter GDP was revised down to show no growth over the previous quarter, leaving it only 1.7 pct higher year-on-year. Preliminary estimates last month suggested that GDP had risen 0.2 pct on a quarterly basis or 1.9 pct on an annual basis. The main reason for the downward revision is a weaker service sector performance as well a small revision to industrial production, Robert Jukes, economist at CSFB said. But consumer spending growth was still strong, registering a 1.2 pct growth quarter-on-quarter. The figures do not have too many implications "other than the purely arithmetic - looking increasingly likely that Q4 was the low point in the slowdown and that this year's numbers will be stronger," he said. "But, from a short rate perspective, it offsets some of the recent negative news on inflation," Jukes said. While the headline figure was below published consensus forecasts, the estimates themselves were made before yesterday's larger than expected fall in business investment, Geoffrey Dicks, economist at the Royal Bank of Scotland said. "Nevertheless, the downward revision is probably larger than expected," The underlying economy is probably a little stronger than implied by the headline numbers, he said, citing the significant fall in Q4 oil and gas extraction which lopped off around 0.2 percentage points from the growth rate. "Q4 probably marks the trough in output," he said.

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