27 February 2002, 12:41 UK Q4 prov GDP unchanged from Q3; up 1.7 pct yr-on-yr
LONDON (AFX) - The UK economy suffered its worst quarterly
performance since the second quarter of 1992 after provisional
estimates from National Statistics showed fourth quarter GDP unchanged
on the previous quarter, leaving it only 1.7 pct higher year-on-year.
Preliminary estimates last month suggested that GDP had risen 0.2
pct on a quarterly basis or 1.9 pct on an annual basis.
Most economists had expected the estimates to remain unchanged but
alarm bells began ringing yesterday after a sharp deterioration in
fourth quarter business investment.
NS said the quarterly performance was the worst since the second
quarter of 1992, when output slumped by 0.3 pct at the height of the
last major recession to hit the UK.
The fourth quarter performance also represents a sharp
deterioration from the third quarter, when GDP rose 0.5 pct
quarter-on-quarter and 2.1 pct higher year-on-year.
NS added that no revisions to previous 2001 estimates were made
though there have been some larger revisions to the expenditure and
income components.
The main reason for the growth revision downwards was a
weaker-than-expected performance from the service sector, particularly
in areas like computing and hotels and restaurants, which suffered in
the wake of the Sept 11 attacks on the US. However, manufacturing
remained in the doldrums as well.
Service sector growth was revised down to 0.7 pct on the quarter
and 3.6 pct year-on-year, from preliminary estimates of 0.8 pct and 3.5
pct.
Output of the production industries is estimated to have fallen 2.1
pct on the quarter for a 4.7 pct year-on-year decline, while
manufacturing output fell 1.7 pct quarter-on-quarter and 5.6 pct
year-on-year.
NS said the implied GDP market price deflator is estimated to have
risen by 0.8 pct on the quarter and by 2.8 pct year-on-year.
The full set of national accounts for the fourth quarter will be
published on March 27.
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