26 February 2002, 13:46 DATAWATCH Euro zone Jan inflation to be revised up following French CPI data
PARIS (AFX) - Euro zone January inflation is likely to be revised
up following stronger-than-expected consumer prices data from France,
economists said.
Eurostat provisionally estimated that inflation rose to a peak of
2.5 pct in January, from 2.1 pct in December, but the provisional
estimate was based on early data from a small number of euro zone
countries.
The final euro zone January inflation figure is due for release on
Thursday, and economists expect the inflation rate to be revised up to
2.6-2.7 pct as a result of today's strong French inflation reading.
French inflation jumped to 2.2 pct in January from 1.4 pct in
December. Economists had been looking for a French inflation rate of
around 1.8 pct.
"In light of this, the Euroland January number is likely to be
revised up by 0.2 percentage points to 2.7 pct year-on-year," said
Christel Rendu de Lint of Morgan Stanley.
"At euro zone level, inflation could reach 2.6 pct," said Emmanuel
Ferry of Exane.
The French inflation rate of 2.2 pct was the first figure above 2
pct since July, while the underlying rate, also 2.2 pct, was the
highest since June 1993.
France did not report a provisional inflation figure for January,
so today's final numbers were of more interest than usual, providing
the final piece in the jigsaw on euro zone January inflation.
"French January CPI confirms that inflation pressure occurred in
the whole euro zone in January," said Guilhem Savary of Caisse des
Depots.
Inflation accelerated in January as a result of base effects, rises
in food prices and taxes and the switch to euro notes and coins,
economists said.
French statistics office Insee said the euro changeover added 0.1
percentage points to the French January inflation rate.
Early February data from Germany and Italy already suggest that
January will mark the peak of the inflation cycle, with inflation
starting to slow in February and falling more sharply in the second
quarter, economists said.
Eurostat also releases its provisional "flash" estimate for
February inflation on Thursday.
Germany has already reported a provisional February inflation rate
of 1.7 pct, down from 2.1 pct in January, while figures from Italian
cities point to an Italian inflation rate of 2.5-2.6 pct in February.
"The decline in inflation will be gradual. A decline was seen in
Germany in February... but in Italy the situation is less favourable,
with an inflation level which is likely to remain as strong in February
as in January, at around 2.5 pct," said Ferry.
Before the French figures economists were looking for a February
euro zone inflation rate of around 2.3 pct, but the likely upward
revision to the January figure will also lead to a higher figure for
February, economists said.
Rendu de Lint said she now expects euro zone inflation to be 2.5
pct in February.
Ferry said the still high level of inflation in the euro zone makes
it less likely that the European Central Bank will cut interest rates
in the near future.
"This temporary stagflation -- recession combined with an
overshooting in inflation -- will weigh on hopes of monetary easing in
the short term," he said.
© 1999-2024 Forex EuroClub
All rights reserved