26 February 2002, 12:35 Forex - Euro higher in early London trade, boosted by German Ifo data
LONDON (AFX) - The euro moved higher in early trade, benefiting
from a higher-than-expected German Ifo business climate index, dealers
said.
The strong reading in the Ifo marks the third rise in as many
months, indicating a turnaround in activity. The headline index rose to
88.7 in February from a downwardly revised 86.2 last month.
"In the past, three increases in a row indicated a turnaround in
economic activity," said HSBC economist Lothar Hessler.
But the net effect of the data was somewhat watered down by the ZEW
survey which had foreshadowed today's outcome, dealers said.
There was further cheer in the business expectations component of
the Ifo. It rose to 101.0 from 94.8 in January, and 98.5 in February
2001.
However, Ifo President Hans-Werner Sinn kept market enthusiasm in
check by saying that while business expectations for the coming months
have improved, current sentiment has deteriorated further.
"The current situation is still considered to be much worse than
before September 11, 2001," he said.
Despite the euro's slight rise after the news, Steve Pearson,
currency strategist at Halifax said overall evidence still shows that
the euro zone still lags the US.
"It is still a tight range for euro-dollar," he added.
The dollar may well be in line for a boost when the US February
consumer confidence figures are released at 3.00 pm today, he said.
Also to come is US Fed chairman Alan Greenspan's performance at
Wednesday's semi-annual monetary policy testimony.
"It is now down to a classic Greenspan juggling act between
accentuating the positive side of the recovery story while not
forgetting the virtuous side of the benign US inflation picture,"
economists at Bear Stearns said.
"The US economy may be over the worst and economic activity is
picking up, but we are a long way off the Fed thinking about moving to
tightening again," they added.
Sterling also ticked higher against the dollar, riding on the
euro's gains.
Elsewhere, the yen remained in a narrow range against the dollar,
with market focus firmly fixed on the Japanese Council on Economic and
Fiscal Policy's anti-deflation package due to be announced tomorrow.
"But there is likely to be disappointment," Pearson said.
One concern is whether the Japanese government will boost the
banking system through public fund injections, dealers said.
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