21 February 2002, 08:23 Forex - Dollar/yen firm in late morning Tokyo on monetary easing speculation
TOKYO (AFX-ASIA) - The dollar/yen was firm in late morning on
speculation the central bank has agreed to consider easing monetary
policy at the month-end, in exchange for more government action to
resolve bad-loans, dealers said.
BoJ governor Masaru Hayami told AFX-Asia this morning that the
central bank may increase outright purchases of government bonds if
needed.
Until now, Hayami has maintained that increasing monthly outright
purchases from the current 800 bln yen would be inappropriate, despite
repeated calls from the government to raise the level to 1 trln yen.
"If it is needed, we will do it, but if it is unnecessary we do not
need to do this. Our policy board meeting will decide," he said in the
parliament building, asked if he will continue to resist calls for
further monetary easing.
Local media have reported Hayami urged Prime Minister Junichiro
Koizumi at a meeting this week to decide quickly on bad-loan
resolution, including possible public fund injections, offering further
monetary easing in exchange.
However, Hayami denied this morning that the bank had been
pressured by Koizumi to ease policy further, saying: "There was no such
talk in the meeting. We just discussed recent financial conditions."
The speculation of further easing helped to support the dollar/yen
despite the sharp gain in Japanese equities this morning, with the
benchmark Nikkei 225 stock index up almost 2.5 pct.
Lehman Brothers head of foreign exchange Hiroyuki Mukaibo said the
central bank governor may be using monetary policy as a bargain chip to
gain a more rapid response by the government on cleaning up the banks'
bad-loan problems.
"Hayami, the other day, went to see Koizumi to say the government
should be ready (for action), and the government said they are
in-sync," he noted.
"It's weird why the BoJ is asking them. It looks like Hayami is
playing a game that if they put in the money, then we will ease,"
Mukaibo said.
Mukaibo said the forex market is dominated by speculators, given
such backroom activity on the policy front.
"Ninety-nine per cent (of trade) is (speculative)," he said, noting
investors are waiting to see whether the impending fiscal year-end in
March will trigger financial-market scares, though he believes the
central bank will help smooth any problems.
"Toward the year-end people will worry about the Japan premium but
the BoJ is going to put in a lot of liquidity," he said. "There are no
banks that are going to go down at all. They may nationalise some."
Meanwhile, the issue of repatriation of funds by Japanese investors
ahead of the fiscal year-end appears to be waning, with the bias for
the dollar/yen likely to be towards the upside.
"The repatriation thing is over. I don't think asset managers ...
in the past year or two are taking many risks. Whenever they (invest),
it's hedged," Mukaibo said.
"The range is going up. If there is a 135 yen break-through, this
is a big deal," he said, adding that investors would then target
135.50-136.00 yen.
© 1999-2024 Forex EuroClub
All rights reserved