21 February 2002, 08:16  Forex - Dollar top-heavy in midafternoon Tokyo ahead of anti-deflation package

TOKYO (AFX-ASIA) - The dollar turned top-heavy against the yen in midafternoon trading on a lack of active follow-through buying, with caution ahead of the announcement next week of details of the anti-deflation package further limiting the US currency's upside, dealers said. However, the dollar is expected to remain well bid due to growing hopes that the Bank of Japan will offer additional monetary policy easing for policy harmonization with the government's anti-deflation package, they said. The Nihon Keizai Shimbun reported yesterday that BoJ governor Masaru Hayami, at a meeting held Tuesday evening, urged Koizumi to make a decision soon on the use of public funds. Hayami said today the central bank may increase outright purchases of government bonds if needed, but added the bank will not take unnecessary action. "People feel that there is some secret accord between Hayami and (Prime Minister Junichiro) Koizumi," Nozomi Securities Co Ltd head of investment information Akihiro Shiroeda said. Aozora Bank foreign exchange deputy manager Kazuhiro Nishina said the BoJ is most likely to decide on additional monetary policy easing at the next policy board meeting, which will be held between Feb 27 and 28, "regardless of the contents of the anti-deflation package." "The market already takes such a likelihood as a done-deal," he said. Dealers said the near-term prospect of the yen largely depends on the substance of the anti-deflation package. The market is expecting details of the package to include measures to deal with the financial system's instability. "The anti-deflation package, which is widely expected to focus on the solution of the bad debt problem, is not likely to have any lasting impact to strengthen the value of the yen," Nishina said. "While it was named the anti-deflation package, it, in reality, focuses on measures which will step up deflationary pressure." Aozora's Nishina said the dollar may rise to above the 135 yen level in the next month, by which time capital repatriation need will further weaken. "But, just judging from economic fundamentals, it would not be a surprise if the dollar reaches the higher-end of 147 yen," he added.

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