18 February 2002, 10:35 OUTLOOK - Japan tertiary data key to rebound hopes; markets focus on policy
TOKYO (AFX-ASIA) - Japanese data this week will be particularly
thin, with the tertiary-sector index the only major economic event,
while markets focus on whether the government will deliver on
anti-deflation plans, economists said.
"The main interest will be the tertiary index. It was one of the
indicators that confirmed the ongoing poor performance of the Japanese
economy," Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein wrote.
"The most recent release -- for November -- showed an especially
sharp 1.7 pct gain on the month. With the shorter-term trends of
industrial production and exports having improved, there will be a good
deal of interest in (the index)".
UBS Warburg economist Ayako Mitsui said markets will focus on
whether the government will provide measures that back up recent
optimism in the equity markets, particularly after US President George
W Bush leaves Japan.
"The attention would be paid more on the policy side especially
after Bush's visit to Japan," she said.
"The discussion on capital injection (into banks) would likely
further heat up and the government would struggle for a while to
present rationalised policies," she added.
"The government is still deeply divided on not only the timing but
also the need for another injection," Mitsui said.
ING Baring chief economist Richard Jerram said an injection into
the banks looks increasingly likely but the government's moves are not
expected to be bold enough to sort out finally their non-performing
loan problems.
"The overall impression is that crisis will be averted with a
moderate injection of public funds, perhaps around 10 trln yen, but
that the measures will be inadequate in terms of resolving the
problems," he said.
"There appears to be no appetite for the sort of radical fiscal or
monetary stimulus that could offer the hope of dispelling deflation."
The following lists the range of forecasts given by surveyed
economists for key economic indicators to be released this week
(compared with previous period data or previous estimate):
JAPAN DEC TERTIARY INDEX, Thursday (8.50 am):
-- up 1.3 pct-down 1.5 pct mth-on-mth (up 1.7; consensus flat)
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