LONDON (AFX) - UK data in the coming week will likely show continued buoyancy in consumer spending, with January retail sales seen reversing December's surprise fall, according to economists. David Page, economist at Investec, said the consumer spending remains strong with both the BRC's retail sales monitor and the CBI's Distributive Trades Survey recording sturdy increases.
"Consumer credit growth remains high and more anecdotal evidence, such as John Lewis' reported sales, suggests that the consumer had a busy month in January. While this sounds familiar, we do expect the official data to record a strong bounce back from December's fall," he said.
However, the three-month rate is likely to show that the UK consumer has slowed from the heady levels around the middle of last year, he added.
According to the AFX median of forecasts, January retail sales is seen rising by 0.8 on the month and 5.9 pct on the year. This month also sees a change in the way National Statistics releases UK trade data. In a move to streamline the figures for both global and Non-EU trade, NS will not release Non-EU numbers for January.
Economists see the UK's global trade deficit widening to 3.0 bln stg in December.
On the same day, UK January public sector finances will be released.
"January is a key month for the public finances, accounting for around 15 pct of income tax and 20 pct of corporation tax receipts," said Ross Walker, economist at the Royal Bank of Scotland. He expects a PSNCR surplus of 14.5 bln stg in January, leading to a cumulative surplus of 4.6 bln stg for the financial year to date. "This would leave public finances on target for a PSNB surplus of around 2 bln stg," Walker said.
The week also sees the release of the minutes from the Monetary Policy Committee's February rate setting meeting. "We will be looking for clues from the minutes to determine whether any members were beginning to warn that rates might have to rise soon," said Philip Shaw economist at Investec.
As the MPC was given an advance estimate of January's RPI-X figure which surged to 2.6 pct, "it will be interesting to see whether the sheer scale of this rise spooked anyone on the committee," Shaw said.

Economists' forecasts for UK indicators due Feb 18 to Feb 22.
AFX CONSENSUS PREVIOUS
WEDNESDAY, FEB 20

UK Dec trade in goods
Global (bln stg) -3.0 -2.838

UK PSNCR (bln stg) -15.0 +9.439

UK Jan M4
month-on-month (pct) 0.5 -0.2
year-on-year (pct) 6.2 6.7

UK Jan M4 lending
(bln stg) 5.5 2.6

THURSDAY, FEB 21

UK Jan retail sales
month-on-month (pct) 0.8 -0.3
year-on-year (pct) 5.9 5.7