FRANKFURT (AFX) - The European Central Bank said euro zone industrial output probably fell by more than 0.6 pct in the fourth quarter from the third. Industrial production fell 0.7 pct month-on-month in November and 1.5 pct month-on-month in October. "The weak outcome in October and November suggests that quarter-on-quarter growth in industrial production in the fourth quarter will most likely be lower than in the third quarter, when it was -0.6 pct," the ECB said in its February monthly bulletin. "This will have a negative impact on overall real GDP growth in the fourth quarter," it added. The pattern of manufacturing output was similar to that of overall industrial production and this points to a considerable quarter-on-quarter decline in manufacturing production in the fourth quarter, it added. Manufacturing capacity utilisation data support this view, the ECB said. Retail sales growth in the fourth quarter is likely to have been below the third-quarter figure of 0.3 pct, the central bank said. October and November sales were 0.2 pct below the average level for the third quarter, it said. The ECB reiterated that recent survey data point to an improvement in confidence at the turn of the year, but said this is not yet reflected in data on actual production which is only available for the final months of last year.