12 February 2002, 12:29 OUTLOOK - Japan data to take backseat to govt policy on deflation, banks
TOKYO (AFX-ASIA) - Japanese data this week will likely take a
backseat to government policy on deflation and the banks expected to be
outlined ahead of the visit to Tokyo by US President George W Bush,
analysts said.
"Interest over the ... week will be focused on government
financial-system policy more than economic releases," ING Barings
economist Richard Jerram said.
"An announcement on public fund injections into banks is likely
before the end of the fiscal year," Jerram said.
"The trigger is likely to be the results of the (Financial Services
Agency) special inspections of the banks, which are expected to result
in the need for an increase in provisions against problem loans," he
said.
"Public fund injections will probably convince financial markets
that a systemic meltdown can be avoided, but it is much less likely
that it will be viewed as a lasting resolution of the problem."
UBS Warburg political analyst Shigenori Okazaki said Prime Minister
Junichiro Koizumi's cabinet will announce details of its latest
anti-deflation measures by the end of the week.
"Koizumi has instructed his economic ministers to draft measures to
fight deflation and prevent further declines in the prices of stocks
and JGBs," Okazaki said.
"The Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy will start discussing
measures ... so that they can formulate a plan by the end of the week
-- just in time for the planned visit by US President Bush this coming
Sunday."
The following lists the range of forecasts given by surveyed
economists for key economic indicators to be released this week
(compared with previous period data or previous estimate):
JAPAN Q3 REVISED REAL GDP, Wednesday (8.50 am):
-- down 0.5-0.6 pct qtr-on-qtr (down 0.5; consensus down 0.5)
Nikko Salomon Smith Barney wrote: "We expect third-quarter real GDP
growth to be revised only marginally to minus 0.6 pct
quarter-on-quarter from minus 0.5 pct. Business investment is likely to
be revised downward from a 1.1 pct quarter-on-quarter gain, but private
consumption and net exports will probably be revised marginally upward.
In any case, the outlook remains bleak for the next several quarters."
JAPAN DEC CURRENT A/C BALANCE, Thursday (8.50 am):
-- 660 bln yen-1.07 trln yen (684.3 bln; consensus 817 bln)
HSBC Securities Japan wrote: "The current account showed signs of
stabilising in the last three months, reflecting the stabilising
exports and a weaker yen, and we estimate it increased by 14 pct
year-on-year in December, for the fourth rise in a row. Although the
trend is likely to have continued, due to two fewer trading days in
December 2001 compared to the previous year, the growth is expected to
have slowed."
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