12 February 2002, 12:07 Forex - Euro firmer in early London trade; markets brush aside German deal
LONDON (AFX) - The euro was slightly higher against the dollar in
early trade as the markets brushed aside last night's compromise deal
over Germany's budget deficit warning, dealers said.
The European Union's finance ministers are expected to rubber-stamp
the deal later to allow Germany and Portugal to avoid a formal warning.
The two countries have agreed to do their upmost to bring their budget
deficits close to balance by 2004.
Rob Hayward, currency strategist at ABN Amro, said the compromise
is unlikely to damage the euro in the current environment. "I don't
think it's wise to cut spending or raise taxes in this environment," he
said.
And Paul Mackel, currency strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort
Wasserstein, agreed the impact of the deal on the currency markets is
minimal.
"The damage had already been done," he said.
Trade data from Germany was also slightly encouraging for the euro.
Germany's trade surplus in December rose to 8.1 bln eur from a surplus
of 7.3 bln in November, and from a surplus of 1.7 bln eur in December
2000.
Nigel Anderson, economist at Royal Bank of Scotland, said the acute
weakness in imports in December is a reflection of the parlous state of
demand in Germany, to the extent that it is indicative of aggressive
inventory cutbacks in the period.
However, he said it "gives a slightly more encouraging signal for
production in the opening months of this year".
Meanwhile, dollar/yen was rangebound as well, ahead of this
weekend's meeting between President George W Bush and Japanese Prime
Minister Junichiro Koizumi.
ABN's Hayward said some market participants are expecting some
"cosmetic measures" from Japan ahead of the Bush visit, which should be
yen positive. But Mackel noted that Bush may indicate that he tolerates
a weaker yen in exchange for structural reforms.
Sterling was slightly firmer in early trade, in line with the euro,
but encouraging retail sales data from the British Retail Consortium
provided further evidence of underlying consumer buoyancy.
And the Swiss franc enjoyed a slight rally against the dollar on
renewed terrorist fears. The FBI last night warned that Yemeni national
Fawaz Yahya al-Rabeei might be planning a terrorist attack on US
targets in the coming days.
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