12 February 2002, 09:07 BoJ leaves economic assessment unchanged; economy continues to deteriorate
TOKYO (AFX-ASIA) - The Bank of Japan left its overall assessment
unchanged in its latest economic report for February, saying the
economy "continues to deteriorate", though the pace of decline will
moderate.
It was the second month in a row that the bank left its assessment
unchanged.
"Japan's economy will continue to deteriorate, but the pace is
expected to moderate gradually with the downward pressure from exports
and inventories abating," the bank said.
Net exports are falling at a "slower pace" as the decline in
exports moderates, while inventory adjustments are progressing.
The bank removed the reference in last month's assessment of
strongly excessive inventories.
The global inventory adjustment in IT-related goods "is coming to
an end", the bank said, adding "there seem to be signs that exports and
production of the East Asian economies have stopped declining".
"Exports are expected to stop decreasing and to turn up toward the
middle of this year," as a result of improved conditions and the
depreciation of the yen.
"However, exports will recover only modestly, while the recovery in
overseas economies is weak and final demand for IT-related goods
worldwide remains stagnant for the time being," it added.
The BoJ said Japanese output continues to decline but at a slower
pace, as a result of the improvement in exports and progress in
inventory adjustments.
"The rate of decline in industrial production is contracting," the
bank said. "However, firms maintain their stance on reducing personnel
expenses under strong excessiveness in employment.
"Hence, the severity of employment and income conditions of
households is rather intensifying, with unemployment continuing to rise
and winter bonuses having decreased distinctly."
Business fixed investment is expected to continue its downtrend due
to the decline in corporate profits, with private consumption likely to
be weak as employment and income conditions worsen.
"Housing investment remains sluggish and public investment is on a
downward trend," the bank added.
Overall prices are expected to follow a "gradual declining trend
for the time being", it said.
"As the economy continues to deteriorate, the balance between
supply and demand in the domestic market will keep exerting downward
pressure on prices," it said, despite the supportive effect of the
recent decline in the yen.
"Moreover, given the high degree of uncertainty regarding future
economic developments, the possibility that weak demand will further
intensify downward pressure on prices warrants careful monitoring."
The BoJ noted that private banks are becoming more cautious in
extending loans to firms with high credit risks.
"The fund-raising conditions of firms with high credit risks,
especially of small firms, are becoming severe as private banks and
investors are becoming more cautious in taking credit risks."
The bank said it needs to monitor more closely developments in the
lending behaviour of financial institutions.
© 1999-2024 Forex EuroClub
All rights reserved