12 February 2002, 09:07  Japan firms see Q4 capex down 1.7 pct qtr-on-qtr - Cabinet survey

TOKYO (AFX-ASIA) - Japanese firms expect overall fourth quarter to December capital spending to fall by 1.7 pct from the previous quarter, a survey of firms by the Cabinet Office found.
The survey was carried out on Dec 25 among firms capitalized at 100 mln yen or more, and received a 90.2 pct response rate.
The Cabinet Office provided the following quarter-on-quarter capex estimates, compared with the figures for the previous quarter to September (and the estimates for the September quarter in the previous survey):
All firms - down 1.7 pct vs down 4.1 (down 6.3)
Manufacturers - down 5.6 pct vs down 11.7 (down 10.3)
Non-manufacturers - up 1.8 pct vs up 0.4 (down 4.2)

It also provided the following year-on-year capex estimates, compared with the figures for the previous quarter (and the estimates for the September quarter in the previous survey):
All firms - down 7.1 pct vs down 3.7 (down 0.3)
Manufacturers - down 16.1 pct vs down 9.8 (down 3.6)
Non-manufacturers - down 2.6 pct vs down 0.4 (up 1.5)

The Cabinet provided the following year to March capex estimates, against the numbers for the previous year:
All firms - down 5.1 pct vs up 2.6
Manufacturers - down 9.7 pct vs up 7.7
Non-manufacturers - down 2.7 pct vs up 0.1

It also provided the following year-on-year capex estimates for the first and second quarters respectively:
All firms - down 11.1 pct, down 14.8
Manufacturers - down 18.3 pct, down 24.4
Non-manufacturers - down 7.4 pct, down 9.5

The Cabinet Office added that the index of confidence in economic conditions in the fourth quarter to December reached minus 60, compared with minus 61 in the September quarter, and a forecast in the earlier survey of minus 52.
The first quarter to March is seen at minus 41, from minus 24 in the last survey, and the June quarter at minus 25.

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