11 February 2002, 20:57  Fed's Minehan says US recovery 'certainly near', but most likely will be weak

PROVIDENCE, RI (AFX) - A US economic recovery is "certainly near," but is also likely to be weak, according to Cathy Minehan, the president of the Boston Federal Reserve Bank. Minehan is not a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee this year. "A mild recession, and perhaps a mild recovery (is) in some ways not a bad outcome," Minehan said in a speech prepared for delivery to the Rhode Island Economic Summit. Concerns over corporate accounting in the wake of the collapse of Enron Corp are acting as a drag on the economy, she said. "It is clear that corporate profit data will be viewed with increasing skepticism. Right now, anyway, equity markets may not be feeding into consumer confidence and demand in the way they seemed to be even two or three weeks ago." A "longer and slower (recession) may be the best bet," Minehan said. Factors which may hold back the economy are "a weak foreign sector, doubts about an inventory rebound, risks to the strength in consumer demand and financial market uncertainties," Minehan said. Although there are "spotty signs of recovery in some countries," the Federal Reserve official said, it is unlikely that foreign demand will cushion US growth. Much of the dramatic drawdown in inventories in the past few quarters may be related to the strong consumer purchases of autos, calling into question whether the expected restocking of inventories will be strong, as many analysts expect, she said. Most importantly, consumer may not continue their strong spending given the high level of consumer debt. Minehan said she is discussing the risks "not to dissuade you from feeling optimistic, but to temper that optimism somewhat." gar/gc NNN

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