11 February 2002, 20:57 Fed's Minehan says US recovery 'certainly near', but most likely will be weak
PROVIDENCE, RI (AFX) - A US economic recovery is "certainly near,"
but is also likely to be weak, according to Cathy Minehan, the
president of the Boston Federal Reserve Bank.
Minehan is not a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee
this year.
"A mild recession, and perhaps a mild recovery (is) in some ways
not a bad outcome," Minehan said in a speech prepared for delivery to
the Rhode Island Economic Summit.
Concerns over corporate accounting in the wake of the collapse of
Enron Corp are acting as a drag on the economy, she said.
"It is clear that corporate profit data will be viewed with
increasing skepticism. Right now, anyway, equity markets may not be
feeding into consumer confidence and demand in the way they seemed to
be even two or three weeks ago."
A "longer and slower (recession) may be the best bet," Minehan
said.
Factors which may hold back the economy are "a weak foreign sector,
doubts about an inventory rebound, risks to the strength in consumer
demand and financial market uncertainties," Minehan said.
Although there are "spotty signs of recovery in some countries,"
the Federal Reserve official said, it is unlikely that foreign demand
will cushion US growth.
Much of the dramatic drawdown in inventories in the past few
quarters may be related to the strong consumer purchases of autos,
calling into question whether the expected restocking of inventories
will be strong, as many analysts expect, she said.
Most importantly, consumer may not continue their strong spending
given the high level of consumer debt.
Minehan said she is discussing the risks "not to dissuade you from
feeling optimistic, but to temper that optimism somewhat."
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