1 February 2002, 12:46 Forex - Dollar pares some gains in early London trade on short-covering
LONDON (AFX) - The dollar pared some of its overnight gains in
early London trade on a bout of short-covering but attention remain
focus on US data with sentiment favouring a positive result for the
unit, dealers said.
An announcement by rating agency Standard & Poors that it is not
planning to downgrade Japan's international credit rating "at the
moment", together with Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokawa voicing
concerns about the yen's rapid slide, assisted the yen to a stronger
close, they added.
Paul Bednarczyk, analyst at London-based economic consultancy
4CAST, noted some exporters' interest to sell dollars from Tokyo in
early trade.
"There is still lots of talks of repatriation for year-end, and
even though it is a little early for that, it is going to weigh on the
dollar/yen until the end of March," he predicted.
"But the strong dollar victory is still pretty much intact," he
added.
This was echoed by Audrey Childe-Freeman, economist at CIBC World
Markets.
Citing overnight comments by US Secretary Treasury Paul O'Neill
reiterating its strong dollar policy, she said: "There was a
combination of things favouring and reinforcing the negative sentiment
that was already in place, and we're seeing further weakening of the
yen."
She expects today's US non-farm payroll number and the ISM index to
be dollar-supportive and to confirm that the US manufacturing sector
has reached the bottom and that the pace of increase in unemployment is
easing.
The possibility of a positive nonfarm payroll number(consensus of
-50K) and a rise in the ISM index (former NAPM) above 50 should support
the market view that the US growth risks are to the upside, noted WesLB
analysts.
"While we remain more cautious on the speed of the economy...only a
change in the overall recovery scenario would derail the positive US
sentiment," they wrote in a note to client.
The euro remained under pressure against most currencies despite a
positive reading on the European manufacturing PMI this morning.
The Euro Zone manufacturing sector purchasing managers' index rose
to a seasonally adjusted 46.2 in January from 44.1 in December.
A reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing sector is
generally expanding, while a reading below 50 suggests that it is
generally contracting.
Analysts noted that the average monthly euro/dollar performance in
February had been negative for the first time since 1996, thereby
making a further downward move on the pair more likely.
Meanwhile, sterling broke through the 1.41 usd level, a level last
broken in 1986.
Bednarczyk noted buying interest from a European bank to buy some
euro/sterling.
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