9 January 2002, 10:36 UK could join euro at no more than 10 pct below current rate - FT survey
LONDON (AFX) - Britain could join the euro at an exchange rate less
than 10 pct below its current level without damaging the economy,
according to independent City and academic economists surveyed by the
Financial Times.
A survey of 20 economists by the newspaper found that the average
sustainable entry rate they proposed was 0.68 to the euro.
That is roughly equivalent to 2.90 dm to the pound: just 8.5 pct
below last night's closing rate, the newspaper said.
The expectation that the pound would have to be devalued sharply if
Britain were to join the euro has been seen as a significant obstacle
to entry, it noted.
"Over the past five years the exchange rate has been more stable
than at any time since it was floated in the early 1970s," Robert
Barrie of Credit Suisse First Boston was quoted as saying.
"I don't see why it shouldn't be sustainable."
Since 1992, when a sterling value of 2.95 dm proved impossible to
defend as the central rate in the exchange rate mechanism, the economy
seems to have grown stronger relative to many other European countries,
the report said.
It is said the French government would be happy for the pound to
join at a rate just below 0.68 stg to the euro, which would make
France's gross domestic product slightly bigger than Britain's, it
added.
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