9 January 2002, 10:34 UK economists downgrade euro exchange rate fear - report
LONDON (AFX) - Britain could join the euro at an exchange rate less
than 10 pct below its current level, the Financial Times reported
citing independent City and academic economists.
A survey of 20 economists by the Financial Times found that the
average sustainable entry rate they proposed was 0.68 stg to the euro.
That is roughly equivalent to 2.90 marks to the pound -- just 8.5 pct
below Tuesday night's closing rate.
The expectation that the pound would have to be devalued sharply if
Britain were to join the euro has been seen as a significant obstacle
to entry.
Just a few years ago, many economists and businesses still expected
the pound to drop back to about 2.50 marks Economic techniques for
calculating equilibrium exchange rates or assessing purchasing power
parity across countries suggest that the pound is significantly
overvalued.
However, faith in those techniques has been shaken by the British
economy's strong performance, the newspaper said.
"Over the past five years the exchange rate has been more stable
than at any time since it was floated in the early 1970s," said Robert
Barrie of Credit Suisse First Boston. "I don't see why it shouldn't be
sustainable," he added.
Since 1992, when 2.95 marks proved impossible to defend as the
central rate in the exchange rate mechanism, the economy seems to have
grown stronger relative to many other European countries, the newspaper
said.
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