LONDON (AFX) - Euro zone economic figures due out in the coming week are expected to show ongoing weakness in Germany, Europe's biggest economy, according to economists.
"Activity trends are to the fore in the coming week, particularly regarding Germany," Royal Bank of Scotland economists said. "German industrial output and manufacturing orders for November are due, as well as the trade balance for the same month and December labour market figures. These are all "new news", and as such probably more important than the EU business and consumer surveys for December, which are an aggregation of national surveys, some already published," they said.
Economists predicted German manufacturing orders during November will show a slight rise month-on-month but will have fallen sharply from a year earlier.
Commenting on the month-on-month figure, Schroder Salomon Smith Barney economists said that, "survey readings suggest that demand is bottoming out, though there are as yet no signs of a strong and sustained rebound."
Economists expect German industrial output figures for November to remain down, although by less than in October. "But with orders having weakened so much, output probably still has some way to go to adjust to weaker demand levels, and we expect the trend in the manufacturing sector to remain slightly negative for some months to come," RBS economists said.
SSSB economists said: "Industrial production probably continued to decline in November for the third consecutive month, even though there have been some signs that this could mark the bottom for production." Economists agreed German jobless figures for December will show a rise for the twelfth consecutive month.
"A gain of 15,000 on the month would be just below the average 17,200 rise of the previous six months and would be a sign that the worst of the economic cycle has been seen," SSSB economists said. "Unemployment reacted quickly to the economic slowdown in the current cycle, raising hopes that the jobs market is more flexible than in the past and that unemployment may also start to improve earlier in the recovery. For the next few months though, the jobless total looks set to rise further," they said. As for the euro zone as a whole, industry confidence is expected to have been unchanged in December and consumer confidence to have deteriorated slightly.
Euro zone producer price figures for November are expected to confirm the trend of falling inflation. "The breakdown of the November figures should show that lower oil prices again were the key cause of the month-on-month decline, though prices excluding food and energy should have been stable to slightly lower on the month, prompting a further year-on-year deceleration," according to SSSB economists.

Economists' forecasts for euro zone indicators due Jan 7 to 11

AFX CONSENSUS PREVIOUS
TUESDAY, JAN 8
Euro zone Dec industry confidence -18 -18
Euro zone Dec consumer confidence -13 -12

Euro zone Nov PPI
month-on-month (pct) -0.4 -0.6
year-on-year (pct) -1.1 -0.5

Euro zone Oct retail sales
month-on-month (pct) -0.2 -0.3
year-on-year (pct) +1.5 +1.5

Germany Nov manufacturing orders
month-on-month (pct) +0.5 -0.5
year-on-year (pct) -9.2 -9.1

WEDNESDAY, JAN 9
German Dec unemployment
seasonally adjusted (000s) +20 +17
non-seasonally adjusted (000s) +200 +63

German Dec unemployment rate (pct) 9.5 9.5

THURSDAY, JAN 10
Euro zone 2nd estimate Q3 GDP
quarter-on-quarter (pct) +0.1 +0.1
year-on-year (pct) +1.3 +1.7

French Dec prelim CPI
month-on-month (pct) 0.0 0.0
year-on-year (pct) +1.2 +1.2

German Nov trade balance (bln eur) +9.3 +9.1
German Nov current account (bln eur) +2.9 +4.4

German Nov industrial output month-on-month (pct) -0.5 -1.2
year-on-year (pct) -3.5 -3.2

FRIDAY, JAN 11
French Q3 final GDP
quarter-on-quarter (pct) +0.5 +0.2
year-on-year (pct) +2.0 +2.2