4 January 2002, 15:37 Forex - Euro loses further ground in midday trade on German unemployment fears
LONDON (AFX) - The euro lost further ground in midday trade despite
encouraging PMI data, as worries about the state of the German labour
market took hold, dealers said.
There was also further profit-taking ahead of crucial US non-farm
payroll numbers this afternoon, dealers said.
Worries about German unemployment hit the euro hard, with leaks in
the German media suggesting a 40,000 increase in December's
month-on-month seasonally-adjusted unemployment.
"That is a big disappointment, especially as the Labour Office is
trying to take out the over 58s," said Hans Redeker, chief currency
strategist at BNP Paribas. "The labour market is even more bleak than
anticipated."
Economists have been expecting a 20,000 increase in German
unemployment numbers, which are released on Wednesday morning.
These unemployment concerns swamped hopes that the euro zone
economy was in fact improving.
PMI data across the euro zone helped the currency bounce back from
the 0.8970 usd level. The French and Italian surveys were above the 50
point cut-off that indicates expansion and the German number was
markedly improved. The wider euro zone was also encouraging at 49.2,
dealers said.
Traders are also positioning themselves ahead of the US non-farm
payroll numbers at 1.30 pm.
These are expected to show a decline of 150,000 and anything
substantially more than 200,000 is likely to hurt the dollar, said
Russell Jones, a currency strategist at Lehman Brothers.
Sterling is also in focus this morning following cautious comments
from Eddie George, governor of the Bank of the England, and new doubts
about the Treasury's five economic tests over UK entry into the euro.
George warned last night that interest rates may have to be raised
to moderate consumer demand.
Two pieces of data yesterday revealed the continued optimism of the
British consumer. Both the housing market and retail spending remain
buoyant, the Nationwide and the Confederation of British Industry said
respectively.
Meanwhile, newspaper reports this morning say that Gus O'Donnell, a
leading Treasury official, told a government seminar last November that
the decision to join the euro will ultimately be a political one and
the government's five tests for entry cannot be clearly and
unambiguously met.
Rob Hayward, a currency strategist at ABN Amro, thinks sterling
should regain some ground. "There is a somewhat more circumspect view
about EMU entry," said Hayward, which could see sterling test the 0.62
level against the euro.
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